Antarctic Ocean Currents Slowing

Australian scientists who are studying the phenomenon say that the deep ocean currents around Antarctica are slowing down and will eventually collapse. If that happens, it could have disasterous climate effects and reduce the oceans' capability to absorb carbon dioxide. Their study was published in the leading scientific journal, Nature The Earth's ocean currents and weather are driven by currents of heavy salt water descending to the seabottom around Antarctica. As the continent's ice cap melts producing lighter fresh water which slows the downward movement. Computer modeling shows that this overturning of ocean water will decrease by 40% in the next 30 years on a trajectory to collapse. Changes in the Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation (AMOC)could cool northwester Europe significantly. This system is now weaker than it has been in the last 150 years.

The Antarctic current slowdown will also affect ocean ecosystems since the upwelling current brings nutrients from the seabed closer to the surface. One of the current features of the southern sea is the abundance of nutrients that feed plankton and fish that in turn are consumed by larger animals such as whales, seals, penguins and dolphins. The effect of Antarctic meltwater on ocean currents has not yet been factored into IPCC climate change models, but the effect will be significant.

TWIT: Death and Destruction

Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States, is the first former president in our nation's history to be indicted for a crime.  The indictment is under seal, but news outlets report that he is charged with a felony for paying hush money to adult film actress Stephanie Clifford. One of his attorneys confirmed the indictment to the press, and he has been notified of the charges.  Reports are that he will travel from Mar-a-Lago to New York City next week for surrender to law enforcement and his arraignment in criminal court.

The $130,000 payment to Clifford was part of a larger "catch and kill" arrangement with David Pecker, former publisher of the National Enquirer in which potentially scandalous stories about the presidential candidate were to be sold to his newspaper and then suppressed or "killed" by not publishing them (e.g. Playboy's Karen McDougal).  The lawyer for Michael Cohen, Lanny Davis, told reporters that people will be surprised at the degree of corroborative evidence of Trump's multiple crimes.

The same fact pattern was investigated by federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, but that investigation did not reach an indictment of Trump because Willam Barr was then US Attorney General, and a DOJ policy of not indicting sitting presidents. In the report on their investigation, the prosecutors referred to Michael Cohen's unindicted co-conspirator as "Individual One". They did conclude that Individual One organized and directed the hush money scheme. Whether the Manhattan DA is using the facts discovered by federal prosecutors, which support a federal conspiracy crime by Individual One, as a justification to elevate a state misdemeanor business records violation to a felony remains to be seen. Alvin Bragg's office has brought this type of business records case against numerous ordinary defendants. The unprecedented case against a former president has nothing to do with "radical left Democrats" or "politically motivated witch hunts", but everything to do with the rule of law and NOT the rule of one deranged man.

Trumpillini promised "death and destruction" if he is indicted. Actually, his indictment and conviction is required to save what is left of America democracy. The death and destruction in our Republic has been at his hands. The fact that the American people elected such an outlandish and bigoted demagogue is in itself an indictment of our culture and politics. People loved Archie Bunker. White supremacy is a deep and perhaps indelible stain on the American character. Given the arc of our modern history since the Civil War, Donald Trump or someone like him was inevitable. As we approach mid-century when whites are no longer a majority ethnic group, some are feeling unconfortable in an America not familiar to them. Be it avoidable COVID-19 deaths or the destruction at our nation's Capitol instigated by him, the Ochre Menace bears responsibility. His accountability is long overdue.

credit: Darkow, Columbus Missourian

West African Lions Increase

Lions are almost extinct in West Africa.  Only 374 remain in the wild.  Some good news showed up on video of a lioness named "Florence" living in Senegal's Niokolo-Koba National Park.  She gave birth to three healthy cubs in a dense forest.  Flo, who is around ten years old and the mother of an estimated total of nine cubs,  is considered to be the matriarch of Niokolo-Koba by researchers who have been monitoring her with a GPS collar. She was the first lioness to be collared by Panthera, the big cat conservation group.  West African lions are smaller and genetically distinct from their savanna relatives.They are considered endangered due to poaching, habitat loss and human conflict.  Today West African lion live in less than 1% of their historic range.

Since Panthera hired anti-poaching personnel, poaching has dropped and the lion population has doubled  to 30 lions. Senegal's Department of National Parks goal is to reach 100 by 2030.  Panthera says they have expanded counter-poaching activities in the past two years. Niokolo-Koba is a world heritage site near The Gambia-Guinea-Guinea Bissau boarder. Video courtesy of Panthera.

Republic Bank Still in Trouble

Readers of PNG know that Republic Bank got $30 billion from larger banks to help it avoid the fate of Silicon Valley Bank {14.03.23} But the carriage-trade bank is still in trouble.  According to The Lever, the Feds are considering extending deposit insurance to cover wealthy depositors as it did for SVB.  The San Francisco based Republic was in the front of the industry's resistance to stricter financial regulation. Its board of directors includes Tom Barrak, a major donor and ally of 'Hair' Trumpilini. Two-thirds of its deposit accounts are well over the FDIC insurance limit of $250,000. Republic was third on the list complied by the Financial Oversight Safety Committee for the most uninsured deposits behind #1 Silicon Valley Bank.

Trump rolled back the Dodd-Frank law to exempt mid-sized banks from stricter oversight including requirements that they draft plans annually for safely winding down operations, known as "living wills" in the industry.  They were also exempted from stress testing as long as their assets were below $250 billion. That limit was originally set at $50 billion but was increased by the bi-partisan de-regulation. Both banks supported the roll-back. These mid-size banks grew rapidly as part of a wave of consolidation in the banking sector.

Like SVB's clients, Republic's are highly sophisticated investors that can move large amounts of money quickly.  One commentator called them "trigger prone".  They push buttons--the rest of us stand in line at the window. Republic is using all of what is left of deposits to fund its lending activities, primarily in the risky venture capital arena.  This condition increases the risk it will not be able to cover withdrawals unless more capital can be raised.  It is facing a $13.5 billion capital gap between tangible book values and deposit liabilities.  Perhaps its 1.05% six million dollar mortgage loan to Mark Zuckerberg has something to do with it?  This month shares of Republic have lost 87% of their value.

credit: T. Tomorrow

TWIT: Forty Years and Counting

credit: A Zyglis, The Buffalo News
BC Idowanna sez: Trump steaks in every pan!

Update: A brief note in the sealed proceeding by a three judge appeals panel in Washington, DC has ordered Evan Corcoran to turn over documentation related to the Mar-a-Lago Papers case.  Whether Trump lawyers will appeal to the Supreme Court is unknown at this time.

That is how long Individual One has evaded legal responsibility for his crimes.  An amazing record that began when his father and him defeated the Department of Justice's civil rights suit for discriminatory housing practices. Black housing applications for Trump-owned properties were marked with "C" for "colored".  The Trumps countersued for defamation in classic Roy Cohen style.  In the settlement, Trumps did not admit that any racial discrimination took place  According to the count by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, Trump has been accused of committing 56 criminal offenses since he launched his first presidential campaign in 2015. His company has been convicted of tax fraud in New York.  He was impeached by the House of Representatives twice.  Individual One continues to confound a justice system that seems aghast at the spectacle of charging a former president for crimes, even a misdemeanor record-keeping violation.  While the perverse Trump, who suffers from an obvious personality disorder, revels in the harsh glare of the camera lights. He reportedly told friends that a "perp walk" would be fun!  It is as if the media enjoys having a sick clown around as the target of their sensationalism. They find him so mesmerizing they secretly hate to seem him treated as an ordinary citizen subject to law.  

Trump knows this, and is using his considerable political influence--he has numerous allies in Congress--to defeat the prosecution for paying off Stormy 'Porno' Daniels.  Mastering delay allows him to broadcast a counter-narrative that he is the victim of a "political witch hunt" a la Jesus Christ.  The old ploy of being tried in the press rather than the courtroom seems to be working, since the DA called off the regular meeting of the grand jury Wednesday.  Pundits are saying it is a mistake to bring a relatively minor crime to trial first when much more serious charges are pending, and that an indictment in New York will actually help him in the primary elections for his third nomination.  

The Manhattan grand jury is reported to be convening Thursday--to hear other matters.  Do not hold your breath if an indictment does come down  for he will be whisked into the Manhattan justice center away from the cameras and crowds, go through an expedited booking process, be arraigned, and bail posted probably in less than half a day.  End of unprecedented news event--back to usual coverage of car accidents and celebrity hijinks.  Meanwhile™ Alvin Bragg is fighting a request to explain his prosecution before a House committee chaired by Jim Jordan, an outspoken Trump supporter and insurrectionist.  Will reality and the rule of law prevail against the evil Cult of Trump?  Stayed tune.

The prosecution in Georgia is definitely more serious, but faces its own political infighting.  Fanni Lewis may loose her job as Fulton County District Attorney if she brings Trump to trial for attempting to influence the presidential election in Georgia under a new law giving the Repugnant legislature the power to remove district attorneys.  Apparently, twelve individuals have been named by the special grand jury there for potential prosecution; the jury foreperson hinted in an interview that Trump could be one of those.  However the DA is free to disregard their recommendations.  A regular grand jury must be convened to consider possible indictments.  More time for a propaganda offensive by candidate Trump and friends portraying him as a persecuted champion of the 'Merican people

Speaking of delay, Trump's lawyers filed an appeal of the order to Evan Corcoran requiring his testimony in the Mar-a-Lago Papers case.  The three member appeals panel has demanded a very expedited hearing agenda, conscious of the delay tactics previously employed by the Trump defense.  Special Counsel Jack Smith has alleged in court filings that Trump deliberately misled Corcoran about the existence of classified documents remaining at Mar-a-Lago.  Beryl Howell, who stepped down from the position of chief judge of the US District Court in Washington DC last week, wrote that the government has made a prima facie showing of criminal violations necessary to negate attorney-client privilege.  

This case centers on a certification signed by Christina Bobb, a junior legal team member, and drafted by Corcoran, stating that no more classified government documents remained at Mar-a-Lago after a grand jury subpoena was issued to produce them. That certification proved false because the FBI subsequently found a hundred more documents in their search of the resort.  Some were stashed in Trumpillini's office desk drawer!  Judge Howell also ordered the production of documents from Corcoran including contemporary notes of his conversations with Trump, audio recordings, and testimony from another Trump attorney Jennifer Little.  From all of these lines of inquiry, it is clear Smith is building an obstruction of justice case against 'Hair' Trumpillini.  But the appeal of Howell's order will take time and give the defense another bite of the legendary apple.

credit: M. Wolverton
Wackydoodle sez: DeSanctimonius is loosing to the Ochre Menace!

Lock him up!

Tanzania Announces Outbreak of Marburg Virus

Marburg virus disease is an Ebola-like virus that is 88% fatal.  Tanzania announced on March 17th its first ever outbreak in the East African country's northwest region.  There have been five fatalities so far.  161 people have been identified at risk of the disease through contact tracing.  No cases have been reported outside the Kagera region; surveillance has been stepped up in neighboring countries.

The most deadly outbreak of Marburg occurred in Angola in 2004-05 that killed 227 people.  The virus causes a hemorrhagic fever. There are no vaccines or treatments for the virus, but symptoms can be relieved through palliative care, which increases the chance of survival. It is transmitted by fruit bats that come into contact with humans through the consumption of bush meat.  Humans transmit the disease by body fluids or contaminated objects.    It was first discovered in 1967 in Marburg, Germany.   Tanzania is battling its first outbreak just a month after Equatorial Guinea confirmed its first case.

New Transparent Insulator

One of the ways to reduce global warming is to increase energy efficiency.  Our current energy systems are mostly very inefficient.  This is true in our architecture, where windows are notoriously poor insulators.  Glass has an R value of about 0.14, double pane windows insulated with an air space between panes achieves a 2.  Fiberglass insulation is rated at 2-4 and rigid foam insulation is 7-8 and considered the best insulator for construction.  The only problem is that foam is hardly transparent.  Who doesn't like to look out the window on a sunny day?  

The folks at the University of Colorado have come up with some creative organic chemistry to produce a thin film insulating material that is transparent.  The good news is that it is not made of toxic compounds, but naturally occurring cellulose.  When is the last time you peered through a tree? (of course if you have superpowers that question is irrelevant). This is where the clever chemistry comes in.  This thin film only 1.5mm thick is called SiCellA. It can adhere to glass and gets an R rating of 5-9, at least a 40% improvement over double pane windows.   

Here is how it works.  This aerogel starts with wood cellulose which is a long chain compound made up of connected glucose molecules. Cellulose is very strong and fibrous because the covalent carbon chains are connected to each other by hydrogen bonds. (see chart). In order to make the opaque substance transparent, researchers removed the hydrogen bounds with an oxidizing catalyst to make it into a cloudy fluid.  At this point a strong acid is added to create a gel in which the cellulose chains regain some of their hydrogen bonds. This gel is poured into a mold and immersed in a solvent to replace water molecules. The mold is dried to evaporate the ethanol leaving nothing but air (hence the name) and voila, a transparent film of cellulose is left behind. One problem remains, however. The aerogel is not waterproof--not good for a window insulator. That problem is solved by adding a silicon compound to the tails of COOH groups.

The process is apparently straight forward and scalable.Moreover the film is not fragile and can be made into sheets for use in manufacturing. The film is stable to 200℃ with no loss of clarity or insulation. In tests it transmitted visible in the range of 97-99% which is better than glass and haze of less than 1%.  Aerogels have been used in advanced applications before such as the Mars rover, but have proven to be fragile and to strongly scatter light.  This process appears to have overcome the drawbacks.   Increased use of insulated glazing in buildings will allow greater thermal efficiency, solar heating and more natural lighting. US Person is willing to trade that one 1% for a healthier planet.

treated window on campus, credit Nature Energy

Jimmy Carter Sabotaged by Texas Governor

It was suspected at the time, but only confirmed by a particpant forty-three years later.  Then Texas Gov. John Connolly asked his Lt. Gov.  Ben Barnes to take a little trip with him to the Mideast over the summer of 1980.  In each capital in which they stopped, the Repugnants broadcast the same message to the Iranian leadership:  don't make a deal with Carter to release the US hostages because you will get a better deal with Reagan.  Records show the pair travelled to Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel on "private business".  Nancy Regan even contacted Connolly during their trip.  Carter's administration was in intense negotiations with Tehran for the hostage release.  A deal before the election, which would have insured Carter's reelection, was possible.  The effect of the disloyal messaging was to prolong their captivity until Reagan took office.  Barnes decided to reveal the plot in the interest of the historic record.

When they returned from their trip, Connolly checked in with Reagan's spymaster and future Director of the CIA, William Casey.  Connolly hoped his treachery would earn him the Secretary of State position in Reagan's cabinet.  It did NOT.  Eight servicemen died in the botched attempt at a hostage rescue known as Operation Bluelight. [photo credit: CBS]  What was called "a piece of cake" by CIA agents turned into an embarrassing debacle in the desert.  The military's blunder, for which Carter accepted responsibility, sealed his election defeat. The Iranians released the hostages after the election, and Jimmy Carter was there to greet them on his last day in office.  The USA got eight years of Reagan's lies and deceptions that culminated in the Iran-Contra affair, in which arms were sold to the Iranian adversaries and the funds from the sales diverted to support Nicaraguan rebels known as "Contras" for their anti-communist counter-revolution.  Col. Oliver North ran the diversion from Reagan's White House.

TWIT: Fat Elvis in the House

Update:  Robert Costello, a former Trump team lawyer, will appear before the grand jury on Monday.  Reports are that Costello wants to discredit Michael Cohen.  Cohen has already served three years for his role in the $130,000 payoff to Stormy Daniels, and there is corroboration for Cohen's testimony against 'Hair' Trumpilini. Cohen has been asked by the DA to stand-by as a rebuttal witness. As of this posting Cohen has not reappeared before the grand jury. His payoff to Daniels just prior to the election was mischaracterized on Individual One's campaign books as a legal retainer for Michael Cohen, which is a misdemeanor crime under New York law.  If the falsification was used to cover up another crime, such as a federal campaign finance law violation, then the offense becomes a felony.  The expert media manipulator has apparently duped them once again in an effort to intimidate by manufacturing outrage. His supporters in the Repugnant Party promptly responded by denigrating the Manhattan DA and the "radical left" for its politically motivated "witch hunt".  Rep. Jim Jordan demanded in a letter that DA Alvin Bragg be brought before his House "weaponization" committee to explain Bragg's prosecution of Individual One. Remember, 147 House Repugnants voted to reject the 2020 election results! Meanwhile, the steel barricades are going up around the Manhattan courthouse.

{03.20.2023} At times US Person thought that he would not see this day arrive, but indications are, at last, 'Hair' Trumpillini will be indicted for just one of his crimes, and the least significant at that. The Manhattan DA's office is reported to have discussed security arrangements with New York law enforcement ahead of an indictment for the Stormy Daniels payoff expected Tuesday.  Even the former president himself told his followers he expects to be arrested and booked. The grand jury has heard from all the relevant witnesses except Trump who declined to appear voluntarily. This indictment, if it comes to pass, is unprecedented in our history, but none the less supported by the known facts.  It may be the first of at least three more indictments: the Georgia election tampering, the Mar-a-Lago Papers, and most significant, the attempted coup.

In another significant legal development, a federal judge has ordered attorney Evan Corcoran to testify about obstruction at Mar-a-Lago. Corcoran was the lawyer who negotiated with DOJ over the classified documents in Individual One's possession despite requests to return them from the National Archives and a grand jury subpoena to produce the documents. He may have been the attorney who directed a certification be made by a junior team lawyer that no more documents were hidden at the resort.  Judge Beryl Howell of the DC Federal District Court rejected Corcoran's claims of attorney-client privilege.  She agreed with DOJ that there were grounds to invoke the fraud-crime exception to the privilege.  At this late stage in the proceedings it would be difficult to conclude otherwise.

BC Idonwanna sez: Don't forget the leg shackles!
Wackydoodle axes: Where can I get that NFT?

The Big Push

Ukraine's much anticipated Spring offensive appears to be gearing up. In order to be successful, its forces need: 1) air support, 2) superior armour in quantity, and 3) the ability to strike targets deep in Russian rear areas. Poland's and Slovakia's decision to send Mig-29s to Ukraine is welcome news. These replacement aircraft need to be refitted to employ NATO munitions such as the SDB (Small Diameter Bomb) and JDAM-ER. The Joint Direct Attack Missle-Extended Range is a bolt-on kit that converts unguided bombs into precision guided munitions. Both of these glide bombs have GPS aided internal guidance systems that allow precision strikes up to 81 miles away--far enough for Ukrainian MIGs to successfully evade Russian anti-aircraft weapons. Another effective long-range weapon is the ATACMS (prononced appropriately, "attack ems") intermediate range balistic missile. This land based system has a range of 185 miles compared to the 50 miles of HIMARS, sufficent to reach rear area targets and Crimea, if the Ukrainians regain the coastline of the Azov Sea*. One drawback is its expensive cost of over $2 million each compared to the GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb) of $40,000 each.

  

Massed armour is critical to waging an offensive ground campaign. Ukraine is receiving Leopard I and IIs in numbers now. The Leopard I is an aging tank equivalent to the T-64. It was the first tank built for the Budeswehr in the 1960's and designed by Porsche. The original model does not have a fully stabilized 105mm gun and its amour is thin compared to more modern tanks. However. later variants added more armor and improved fire control systems. In numbers, it could be useful in a support role while the Leopard II and a few MBTs from other countries form the spearhead of an advance. Reports are that Ukraine is forming three corps of about 60,000 men and women. They will ride into battle aboard hundreds of IFVs and APCs supplied by NATO countries and Sweden. Slava Ukraini! {photo: Leopard I in storage}

*The tide of battle turned in the Allies favor after they subjected the city of Kerch to naval bombardment and took the city.

New Data Shows Link to Racoon Dogs

Even the source of the corona virus has become a political debating point in hyperpartisan Washington, DC. The intelligence agencies are divided on the issue. The Department of Energy concluded with "low confidence" that the virus escaped from a lab. The FBI supports the same theory. Conservatives would love to pin the blame for the highly disruptive pandemic on China.  A virology lab in Wuhan is known to have conducted experiments with bat coronaviruses.  Nevertheless, US Person agrees with Dr. Faci that the virus was not a lab leak or a bioweapon. New genetic data from the infamous Wuhan wet market shows raccon dog (N. procyonoides) DNA comingled with the virus genome indicating that the virus probably came from a natural source. Previously it was thought that the virus might have passed through pangolins also sold at the market. The WHO cautioned that the new data is not definitive, but it sheds more light on the virus' origin. It also criticized China for not supplying the information three years ago. 

The new analysis based on previously unavailble Chinese sources has not yet been peer reviewed. Study samples were collected from surfaces at the Huanan Seafood Market. A Utah University virologist, who has looked at the data, told media that the discovery fits the scenario of a zoonotic spillover in which animals infected with the virus left traces of their DNA. Raccoon dogs are bred for their fur in Asia. The coronavirus causing COVID-19 that killed 7 millions is remarkably similar to coronaviruses found in bats. A majority of scientists who support a natural source hypothesis, think the virus reservoir in bats found its way into humans via an animal vector. The wet market where animals are slaughtered and come into close contact provides an ideal setting for a jump to human hosts. It took scientists more than a dozen years to find the animal vector for SARS, also caused by a coronavirus. In the meantime the scienctific question has become embroiled in a bitter political dispute.  

Raccoon dogs are from an ancient lineage that is neither raccoon or dog.  In Japan, the native species is called "tanuki" and is associated with magic, shapeshfting, and luck in folklore, but are considered an invasive species in Europe.

COTW: The Largest Bank Failures since 2001

More:  You thought US Person was just mouthing off, as usual!  ITYS!  A consortium of eleven big banks announced it would provide $30 billion in emergency liquidity to Republic Bank to avoid "contagion" to the banking system.  Wealthy depositors at Republic withdrew $40 billion in a matter of hours on Monday.  Its stock price fell 60% despite reassurances the bank had obtained more liquidity from JPMorgan and the Fed.  Republic catered to the 'carriage trade', offering favorable terms to their wealthy clientele; Mark Zuckerberg obtained a mortgage from Republic Bank. The consortium said its backstop of Republic showed their confidence in the country's banking system.  Nevertheless, a nervous public forced the federal government to guarantee large uninsured deposits at SVB and Signature banks.  Shares of midsized banks were broadly dumped by investors.  So much for confidence.  

Credit Suisse, a fixture of international finance, is under attack from its depositors.  The bank asked for a statement of support from the Swiss government.  The bank will borrow 50 billion CHF from the central bank to fund its operations.  Credit Suisse has lost 70% of its share value over the last year. As long as taxpayers' money is not used to bail out the struggling capitalists faced with massive spreads in interest rates, US Person is fine with that.

{14.03.2023}You thought bank failures were a thing of the past--shades of FDR and the Great Depression.  Take a look at this chart:

There have been an incredible 563 bank failures in the last two decades! Eclipsed only by the WaMu failure caused by junk mortgage backed securities, the collapse of SVB was caused by the inability of the bank to stay solvent as the its tech start-up debtors drew down more funds to cover expenses when their revenue dried up in the TechnoBust. The bank was unable to sell assets, including long-term Treasury bonds, at a profit to cover the withdrawals. Another failure is Silvergate Capital, which was closed by its owners who returned depositors their money. That bank was highly exposed to the sketchy crypto sector.

When WaMu shut its doors, a flood of bank failures followed. Will "contagion" happen again despite so-called reforms of the financial sector in the wake of the 2008-09 Great Recession? There were no buyers for SVB at the weekend auction.  Several large banks expressed interest, but after due diligence stepped back. Another auction is being scheduled. Regulators took the precautionary step of allowing large, uninsured SVB depositors to access their money on Monday. A bailout is a bailout by any other means. As economist Michael Hudson points out, this time around it is not fraud, but inflation of asset prices caused by the era of "free money", aka Quantitative Easing, that ended in 2022.

Forget the Repugnant's latest 'woke' meme--merely more propaganda! Commentators whose opinions US Person respects see a systemic problem within the US banking system.  SVB was overseen by the Federal Home Loan Bank, which is notorious for regulatory capture. Individual Onedecided to stop scrutinizing mid-size banks under Dodd-Frankfor bank assets between $50 and $250 billion dollars with the help of moderate Democrats including Jon Tester of Montana. Progressives Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown fought against this regulatory roll-back. Silicon Valley is a core Democratic constituency that contributes mightily to Democratic Party coffers. Highly unlikely that the administration would allow wealthy contributors to sink or swim on their own. Remember when President Obama told Wall Street bankers visiting the White House, “I’m the only one between you and the mob with the pitchforks."

The real problem in the US financial sector is interest-bearing debt deflation which grows exponentially, whereas the economy does not. The magnitude of financial claims soon exceeds the ability to pay.  To remove this problem a financial crash is in the offing so valuations and interest rates can return to historic norms. Subsidizing wealthy investors like those at SVB only delays the reckoning. Incidentally, have you paid your student loan today?

RIP: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Chaos

Update:  Another bank was shut down, this time by the New York Department of Financial Services on Sunday; the agency appointed the FDIC as receiver.  New York's Signature Bank was a player in the crypto space, which one commentator labeled akin to a video game.  Federal bank regulators issued a joint statement warning of the dangers in crypto finance.  Among the laundry list of shady practices are: misrepresentations and misleading disclosures by crypto asset companies, trading on open access public networks without adequate governance,  and significant volatility of crypto assets including coins.  

{11.03.2023} It was the 16th largest bank in the United States and the largest bank collapse since Washington Mutual in the Panic of 2008. The Friday run on SNB by its depositors came midst the bursting of the tech start-up/crypto bubble that began last year. The bank's attempt to raise $2.5 billion in additional capital and liquidity triggered a rapid sell-off of its stock beginning Thursday, which extended into the after hours. Trading was halted before trading began on Friday morning, and remains halted. The bank had 17 branches in California and Massachusetts with $209 billion in assets. The fact that it collapsed so suddenly has shocked investors.  Governor Newsom has asked for federal help to "stabilize" the situation.  Once again taxpayers may be asked to subsidized the insatiable greed of the investor class.  No money forgiving student debt, but millions for bailing out the rich.

SNB specialized as the go-to bank for tech and crypto start-ups. It survived the DotCom bust of 2002, but this bubble was bigger. Its stock price hit a "hallucinogenic peak" in November 2022 of over $700 per share. Tech start-ups are intense cash drains. When the bank began to back away from lending to these risky ventures, the drain on its accounts continued while deposits dried up. The bank had to sell assets to meet those withdrawals. When it sold $21 billion in bonds, SNB lost $1.8 billion due to falling market value caused by rising bond yields. (Remember bond yields move inversely to price.)  Interestingly,  SVB Financial, which owns the bank, was rated "investment grade" just prior to the collapse.  On Wednesday Moody's rated it A3; even after the bank announced its bond sale loss, Moody's only reduced its bond rating to Baa1, still investment grade.  Lesson: do not rely entirely on bond rating scores to make investments.  There is market pressure to keep bond rating high.

There are rumors that SNB warned some investors to yank their funds before the bank became insolvent since FDIC insurance is limited to the first $250,000. The FDIC announced that the bank-in-receivership will resume operations on Monday, and that cash will be available to customers. Right now the FDIC does not look like it will suffer a loss for the takeover, as there are sufficient bank assets to pay insured accounts and partially pay sonme uninsured depositors. Bank shareholders, as usual are SOL. Blame it on the Great Techno Bust, or tulips take your pick.

TWIT: Invitation to a Hanging

credit: KAL, The Economist

Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan DA who initially ignored his assistants' recommendation to indict Trump for election fraud, has apparently had a change of heart. As everyone knows by now, Trump ordered his fixer Michael Cohen pay porn star Stormy Daniels (aka Stephanie Clifford) to keep her mouth closed about their sexual liaison. Campaign funds were involved in the payment, so that is a violation of campaign finance laws. Later, Bragg rejuvenated the investigation after the lead prosecutor resigned in disagreement with him. Now, he appears near an indictment because he asked the Orange Menace to appear before the grand jury to testify.  Undoubtably, Trump will not comply his request. Why Bragg did not simply subpoena the witness is very curious.

Perhaps Bragg's renewed interest is an attempt by the so-called "deep state"--political insiders in power--to let Trump off lightly for his numerous crimes. Conviction in the Daniels case amounts to a low-level felony for which he could serve a maximum of four years compared to twenty for sedition. Actual jail time for Trump is highly unlikely, and another example of the justice system's bias in favor of the rich and influential.  On another front in the so-called "witch hunt", the Georgia legislature, which is run by Repugnants, passed a new bill (Senate 92) subjecting district attorneys like Fanni Willis, who is investigating Trump for his interference in the presidential election, to removal from office by an appointed commission.  The Georgia Lieutenant Governor is also a target of that investigation. These proto-facists are not subtle, are they? So much for law and order!

'Hair' Trumpillini is already running for President and is ahead in opinion polls for the Repugnant party's nomination.  He declared that he will not drop out of the race even if indicted for a crime; you have to admit the man has titanium cohones. This nation cannot suffer a second term from a man who has no respect for laws, or democracy. In a recent appearance he labeled Bragg a "racist prosecutor' being pushed by "radical Democrats" and the media. He called Daniels a "horse face".  At least "radical democrats" still support the Constitution! This dangerous child sociopath must be disqualified from office by a conviction for his unprecedented offenses against the constitutional order. The Daniels payoff is very small potatoes. Try again, Garland.

credit: Ohman, Sacramento Bee
Wackydoodle sez: Don Jr and his Yellow Dog know best!

UN Buys Tanker to Advert Catastrophe

FSO Safer has been stranded off the coast of Yemen since 2015.  It was abandoned off the port of Hodeida when civil war broke out. The supertanker is carrying 1.1 million barrels.  The ship is in danger of breaking up and causing a huge environmental disaster in the Red Sea.  Negotiations to offload the tanker have gone nowhere.  Finally, the UN stepped into the breach and purchased a crude carrier to travel to Yemen and offload the stricken supertanker.   FSO Safer has not been maintained since it was abandoned due to the war.  The huge supertanker is 1,223 ft. long. [photo credit: Getty Images]

The UN purchased its ship from Euronav.  The vessel is in China undergoing routine maintenance and is expected to arrive on site by May.  A major spill could devastate the Red Sea fishing industry in a country already suffering immense privations from its long-running conflict.  23 million people are estimated to be in need of aid.  UN said the operation to off-load the crude will cost in the neighborhood of $129 million.  A potential oil spill clean up is estimated to cost $20 billion.  A UN spokesperson warned reporters that the operation would be risky and could fail. The transfer of oil would be suspended if not enough funds are raised to cover the costs.  About $75 million in donations have been received so far.

15G Dogs after the Apocalypse

Readers of PNG know that the Chernobyl exclusion zone has been de-populated and wildlife has returned to dominate the contaminated landscape.  Among the species left behind are humans' pets. Dogs and cats have proliferated in the aftermath. Scientists have been keen to know how animals have adapted to life  and how they have changed after exposure to high levels of radiation,.

Fifteen generations later, dogs are managing to survive and reproduce successfully among the decaying buildings, machinery, and abandoned homes.  The first study of what geneticists hope will be more was published in Science Advances. The study focused on 302 dogs residing in the exclusion zone in areas of different radiation levels that may have made them distinct from each other and dogs outside the zone.  Such studies will help man understand the long-term impacts of radioactive fallout on all mammals including himself. In April, 1986 the Chernobyl plant got out of control and begin melting down.  An ensuing fire and explosion spread fallout into the atmosphere. Some of that fallout reached as far as Northern Europe. About thirty people died in the immediate aftermath, mostly heroic "liquidators" as they were termed by the Soviet government. Thousands more have died from long-term exposure. [photo credit: AP]

Most of the study animals appear to have descended from pets left behind during the evacuation of residents. Through their DNA, researchers were able to distinquish dogs from different areas of the zone with different levels of exposure. They identified 15 distinct areas. At this point in the research, geneticists can look for specific mutations that have either helped or hindered the animals' survival. Researchers will return to the zone for follow-up study. The last time was in October 2022; they did not see any war-related activity even though the initial Russian invasion route towards Kyiv was through the exclusion zone. Oblivious Russian soldiers were reported to have dug trenches in the contaminated soil. Researchers have become attached to some of the dogs, giving them names. Apparently some still enjoy the company of humans, especially if they come with food.

Bison Herds Set to Expand

On Friday of last week Interior Secretary Deb Halland, a member of the Laguna Pueblo tribe, announced that federal efforts to restore the bison to the American West will focus on indigenous groups. The large herbivore, which is the center of culture and religious practices of Native Americans, once roamed the North American continent in the tens of millions before European settlers came. Removing buffalo was a means adopted by the government to end the nomadic life of plains tribes and clear the land for agriculture. Consequently, the policy was a form of genocide as many natives died of starvation. The buffalo was nearly eradicated by the turn of the century. A few hundred remained on ranches. Indigenous peoples now manage about 20,000 bison in 65 herds.

Twenty-five million dollars was appropriated for bison conservation as part of last year's climate bill. The money is scheduled to be used for creating new herds, transferring excess animals to tribal lands, and establishing new management agreements with tribal authorities. Sec. Haaland noted in her remarks that the buffalo is "functionally extinct" despite their increasing numbers, and that more conservation work needs to be done to restore its grassland steppe habitat. She said that tribes are in the best position as the original stewards to know, "how best to care for it". A Rosebud Sioux representative said,“They are not just a number or a commodity; this is returning a relative to its rightful place.”

That rightful place ought to be the great rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains that runs from border to border in the western United States. [photo credit: AP] In the 21st century region is now sparsely populated due to its unsuitability for non-irrigated agriculture and severe weather. Depsite the moral debt this nation owes the buffalo, restoring it is not without its opponents. Repugnant state legislators have latched on to the conservation program as an example of "woke" policies that hurt conservative rural voters. They have sought to make it more difficult to re-introduce bison to their former range by passing legislation and cancelling state bison management plans. Conservatives in Montana oppose bison reintroduction on the Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, a remote landscape of prairies and 'badlands' on either side of the Missouri River.  Ranching interests fear the buffalo's return as competitors for subsidized grazing on public lands, and a possible, but unproven, source of brucellosis. Consequently, bison in protected areas like Yellowstone National Park have exceeded the carrying capacity of the land; annual culls have been used to control herd size. Scientific studies have shown that bison have a beneficial effect on prairie ecosystems.

TWIT: Friends All Over

credit: S. Sack

The recent expose by The Washington Post of the FBI's willingness to accept the word of a duplicitous sociopath explains in part the extreme delay in holding the Ochre Menace accountable for his crimes. Agents in the Washington DC field office argued with prosecutors who wanted to obtain a search warrant for Mar-a-Lago. They wanted to accept the false certification that there were no more classified documents in Trumpilini's possession at face value. Agents thought conducting an unannounced search to be too aggressive, and potentially bad press. According to the Post reporting, some even tried to shut down the investigation entirely, after Trump's attorneys made the certification. Prosecutors eventually got their way and the "raid" was carried out on August 8th after months of non-cooperation by Trump's team.  Agents found a hundred classified documents still at Mar-a-Lago including some beyond top secret that concerned Iran's nuclear capability and espionage against China. The dispute cost valuable time to the investigation. When federal prosecutors were finally ready to charge the former president and white-collar criminal for obstruction and mishandling highly classified material, the Attorney General decided to appoint a Special Prosecutor, elevating the case even farther into the realm of the political and making it more difficult to bring him to trial.

The fact is our federal government, especially when it comes to law enforcement, is neither politically impartial nor fair. There is one process for the rich and influential and another for the poor and unconnected. Steven D'Antuono, then head of the Washington, DC field office, was among the FBI officials who argued for a consensual search.  But prosecutors, exasperated by dealing unsuccessfully with Trump's attorney Evan Corcoran for months, ordered the search take place. The FBI complied over objections, but only when Trump was not in residence, and they did not wear their usual blue and yellow "FBI" jackets, choosing instead civilian clothes. Clearly, Trump's frequent attacks on the agency during his term in office had the desired intimidation.  Equally clearly, polarization has played a significant role in the several investigations of Trump, who still has not been charged with a crime. After all, the FBI are cops, and cops are mostly conservatives.  For the sake of the order prove US Person wrong!

credit: R. McKee
Wackydoodle sez:  Don't forget the get-out-of-jail card!

COTW: Europe's Energy Mix

The chart shows that Europe's energy portfolio is fairly distributed among the major sources.  Germany is Europe's leading industrial nation and it relies heavily on coal burning to generate electricity (34%).  The government is pledged to change that situation.  Wind power is the country's second largest source of electrical generation at 25%.  The same cannot be said for Poland and Czech Republic where coal still predominates.  A decade ago, coal burning accounted for a quarter of the continent's electrical generation. If Putin thought cutting off oil and gas to Europe would leverage the EU against Ukraine, it has turned out he miscalculated.  What he has accomplished is to push Ukraine farther into the western alliance.

Brazil Drives Out Miners Wrecking the Amazon

The Brazilian federal government under President Luiz Da Silva is using special forces to drive out illegal miners who are destroying large swathes of the Amazon rainforest.  Ibama, the Brazilian environmental protection agency, is attempting to halt the destruction that occurred under former playboy populist Jair Bolsonaro.

credit: T. Phillips/Guardian

The onslaught was particularly harmful to the Yanomami, an indigenous tribe that inhabits the Xitei, a region in the far northwest of the Amazon Basin, bordering on Venezuela.  The miners occupied villages, poisoned rivers and banished health workers while creating ugly, denuded scars on the landscape.  Da Silva has called their destruction, "premeditated genocide".  The Special Inspection Group (SIG) using helicopters have swooped down on fleeing miners starting in February to evict them from indigenous territory, which is about the size of Portugal.  About 30,000 Yanomami live in 300 villages there.  Gunfights have occurred with casualties among the miners. The government has given miners until April 6th to vacate.

A Yanomami leaders described his land that was once pristine rainforest in which his people lived in harmony with Nature as, “so sick. Our rivers are sick. The forest’s sick … the air we breathe is sick, I would describe it as onokãe Yanomami word for genocide.  Miners captured by SIG are unrepentant of their destruction of the rainforest and indigenous culture.  They say that the raids will eventually taper off, and they will return to the forest to resume their multimillion dollar illegal industry.  Indeed, there is evidence of previous enforcement efforts in the form of abandoned airfields scattered around the territory. These airfields were closed in the 1990's. This time the environment minister Marina Silva has said the government plans to stay to protect indigenous people, calling the havoc unleashed by Bolsonaro a crime. 

An anthropologist who has worked with the Yanomami since the 70's said that Bolsonaro attempted to annihilate the Yanomami through intentional neglect citing evidence of severe malnutrition amongst the children and poisoning of the water by the use of toxic mercury to extract gold from the cassiterite ore dug out of the pits. [photo above} Brazil's former president is in hiding in Florida where he has petitioned for a visa to stay in the US.  Bolsonaro called Lula's accusation of genocide a "leftist farce". The US has an extradition treaty with Brazil, which was signed in 1961.