Friday, November 10, 2006

Another Freakin' Poll

So the election was not dispositive enough for you? The 2,000 voter telephone poll by Greenburg, Quinlan, Rosner Research dissect the election results and confirm what we know now. The opinion research group interviewed 1,000 voters nationally and 1,000 voters in 50 GOP districts considered competitive before the election. The election themes that emerged:

Its the war, stupid. 75% said the war was a factor in their vote. Only healthcare came close in the level of concern, 72%. 47% said they were trying to send a message about Iraq. The Texas Frat Boy was a negative factor even in GOP districts, -16. Nationally, he was a disaster with a 56% disapproval rating. The interviewed voters found a real difference in candidates on the issue of Iraq by 58%. A strong majority see multilateralism as correct approach to national security .
Nation on wrong track. 59% said this. The majority also said that business regulation is necessary; religion is mixed up to much in government; and esteem for conservatives has collapsed. Although the nation is split on homosexuality as an acceptable life style 51%-42%, a large majority want alternative energy development, 66%, and they said jobs were preferable to cheap goods.
Congress is a mess too. 67% disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

The Democrats pulled off 2/3rds of a hat trick by mobilizing their base. The party did better among their identity groups than 2004 except among well educated women. The Republicans lost some affluent and rural white men. Despite their "thumpin'"the Republican ground game is awesome with a plus +11 advantage in mail contacts +7 in phone contacts--the legacy of Carl Rove. Nationalization of the mid term election worked as a strategy (if it was a conscious strategy). In GOP districts, 67% said that party control of Congress was a factor in their vote. Independents both in and out of the GOP were swayed to vote Democratic, 58% nationally and 61% GOP. And yes, Katrina did make a political difference. The breakaway vote came after the disaster in late September. It must please Howard Dean that the Democratic Party is identified with reform, the middle class and new ideas. Now, if they just do something with this mandate for populist change.