The Charlatan is in the Ukraine on his way to Bucharest for a NATO summit and a meeting with outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin. Predictably he is taking a hard line on two issues that are of great concern to the Russians: European missile defense and membership in NATO for two former Soviet bloc countries, Ukraine and Georgia. He will attempt to sell the missile defense idea to Mr. Putin with little success. Short of complete and open American collaboration to establish a defense system, for which the Russians see little legitimate need, the Russian military will consider the American initiative as a threat to it's nuclear deterrence despite the fact no current anti-missile system has proven itself reliable. Ukraine's membership in the western military alliance faces opposition from within the western ranks. Germany has expressed its opposition to expanding the alliance eastward. Russia is a major supplier of natural gas in Europe, and some Europeans are loath to antagonize their energy rich neighbor. Ukrainians themselves are not united on the question of joining the western alliance.This diplomatic summit does, however, present an opportunity for both sides of the Cold War to reconsider their strategic nuclear postures instead of seeking incremental advantages that could ignite another arms race. The official doctrines of both the United States and Russia are still immersed in the Cold War despite more cordial rhetoric. But even the talk has turned hard of late. Both countries maintain thousands of nuclear warheads of which 1300 to 1400 remain on military alert status [1]. The risk of an unpremeditated attack is admittedly small, but the risk of a mistaken, accidental or unauthorized launch remains a distinct possibility. The large size of the nuclear arsenals and attempts to find new technological countermeasures weakens the international consensus to prevent proliferation. Article IV of the Non-Proliferation Treaty requires the US and Russia to take serious steps toward nuclear disarmament.
The 2002 Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions does not limit the number of nuclear weapons that are stored or are classified as tactical weapons, such as air defense and anti-missile systems. The US has approximately 5350 warheads in storage while Russia is believed to have 10,000. Instead of antagonizing it's former opponent by insisting the western military nuclear alliance be brought to the Russian doorstep, the United States should seek ways to engage Russia in further nuclear disarmament. The US has made a start. The US arsenal contained roughly 10,000 warheads prior to December 2007. The US government has announced a further 15% cut in it's arsenal by the end of 2012. But the Regime has at the same time announced programs to revitalize aging infrastructure for developing and producing nuclear weapons, and a plan to replace aging warheads with four or more new designs over the next two decades. These programs represent incentives for existing nuclear powers to rearm and for other countries to become nuclear club members.
The United States should set an example of serious commitment to nuclear disarmament. When our president meets with President Putin he should disavow any and all first use of nuclear weapons, contrary to current doctrine which permits preemptive nuclear first strikes. This destabilizing military strategy is currently under consideration for use against Iran. He should direct that current targeting plans be revised so that instant retaliatory launches are replaced with more considered and deliberate deployment options tailored to specific situations such as confronting an accidental or "rogue" attack by another power or radical state. He should drop any plans to establish a European missile defense system without Russia's agreement, and curtail further deployment of the unproven, US based missile defense system. He should also work with the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. These policy pronouncements would build confidence and cost the US very little in the size or effectiveness of it's current nuclear arsenal. But to demonstrate our good will to the world--a gesture desperately needed after the debacle of the Iraq invasion--he should go further and announce more unilateral reductions in size of the US arsenal. The opportunity for giving peace a chance is now.
[1] Union of Concerned Scientists,Toward True Security, February 2008
photo: USSR test Joe 4, 1953
image: Committee for Nuclear Disarmament, UK 1958
Update: Before this entry was posted, AP reports that NATO has rejected the Charlatan's request to consider membership for Ukraine and Georgia. The formal announcement of the decision will be made today. Both Germany and France blocked the US proposal.