The US and Russia are attempting to negotiate a follow-on treaty to START I that expires in December. Russia wants to see deep cuts in the number of warhead delivery systems currently allowed to offset the US advantage in bombers and missiles. The US appears to be willing to reduce the number of strategic warheads to around 1500 and delivery systems to around 500 to 1,000 from the present ceiling of 2200/1600. Greater reduction would require the US to destroy delivery systems which would present Team 44 with political problems from the nervous Nellies at home. A major hurdle to an agreement is the US insistence on a "missile defense shield" for Europe against an attack from the Middle East. It plans to build an unproven ABM system in Chez Republic and Poland {11/08/08}. The Russians see that plan as a provocation because in their view it dilutes nuclear deterrence--akin to the NATO dog scent marking its expanded sphere of influence. A secret study by a US physicist indicates the Russians may be correct in their evaluation. An anti-missile defense against a launch by Iran, the only Middle East antagonist remotely capable of a future attack against western Europe, would be much more effective based in Turkey and Romania instead of central Europe. The Russians have offered to allow the joint basing of an ABM radar array in Azerbaijan. Perhaps in the interest of progress in other areas with our strategic partners, the US should replace its negotiating fantasy[1] with the reality of close US-Russia cooperation.[1]www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/scientists-letter-to-obama.pdf: A group of experienced scientists and engineers urged 44 to apply the principle of restoring scientific integrity in government decision making to the European ABM system. The experts said in their letter, "This system has not been proven and does not merit deployment. It would offer little or no defensive capability, even in principle."
[photo: Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Aviation Week ]