GM has tapped California as the place for rolling out the Chevy Volt in 2011. GM has even commissioned a catchy jingle to educate consumers about the plug-in EV which plays at auto shows were the Volt is on display. The price will not be inexpensive, $40,000, primarily because the car's lithium ion batteries will cost around $14,000. Besides the price tag a new analysis sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Energy may give pause to consumers willing to commit to a greener type of personal mobility. The report says that because of the higher front end costs to consumers--as much as $18,000 per car-- plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV) will not overtake internal combustion vehicles in the US car market for decades. The report estimates that with consumer acceptance there could be as many as 40 million PHEVs on the roads by 2030, but a more realistic number is 13 million. Even with government subsidies and advancements in battery technology bringing the cost down, PHEVs are not expected to impact carbon emissions until 2030. Gas consumption for extended range PHEVs like the Volt are significantly less than (<) current hybrids (55%). But because they are recharged from the electric grid, emissions from generating stations must be accounted for. If drivers are conscientious about charging their EVs a night when the electrical load is reduced, the current ramshackle electric grid could handle the new consumption.The report assumes no breakthrough advancements in battery technology which could tip the balance in favor of electric vehicles. Nor does the study account for the possibility of charging more for gasoline to reflect the environmental and social cost of fossil fuel consumption. Former GM Vice Chairman and gear head* Bob Lutz thinks that gasoline beyond $4.00 a gallon will be necessary to motivate die-hard internal combustion enthusiasts to switch to electricity. Such an idea is a fiscal godsend for a future of expanding federal deficits, but is political heresy. Lutz is quick to disclaim any advocacy for higher gas prices, and is cautious about demand for his company's new electric car. Total demand by 2015 may only be in the range of 250,000 to 300,000 units. GM plans to introduce 8-10,000 units during the first year of production. The company has been roundly criticized for crushing its first electric car, the EV1, which it also introduced in California. Some commentators see battery prices dropping much more rapidly than the report assumes due to increases in longevity, recycling potential and energy density. Tesla VP Diarmuid O'Connell says his ion battery chemistry is already achieving 8% storage improvement per year which is equivalent to 2x over ten years. Nissan has announced its new Leaf PHEV already has 2x energy density. Owners of the Leaf will lease their batteries, thus reducing the car's purchase price.
*The 77-year-old executive laid down a challenge to owners of four-door sedans to beat his time of 2:56.321 around a wet Monticello Motor Club track set in his US$62,020 Cadillac CTS-V. He was beaten by a 21 year old driving a BMW M3 with a time of 2:50.424.