Monday, August 22, 2011

Chart of the Week: More Depression Ahead

This chart shows a strong correlation between the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and real GDP. Both are falling now.  When real GDP growth is below 2%, past economic performance is in recession and consumers agree. With masses of unemployed looting high streets for consumer goods in England, you have to wonder what could happen here? A depression is a period of several years in which economic performance is below normal and unemployment remains high despite fiscal intervention. From 2007 to 2009 the US economy shrunk by 5.1%. The "D" word more accurately describes the current economic malaise even if it is politically out of bounds. By essentially siding with fiscal radicals in the deficit versus spending class war, the Obamatron has underperformed* to such a disappointing extent that he faces even worse news as the 2012 election approaches. He gets credit for terminating OBL, but as he should know Americans vote with their pocketbook.

*of course that characterization is from the perspective of an air-breathing person progressive. A look at Obamatron's list of largest campaign contributors in the last presidential campaign explains his policy choices from health care insurance (no public sector competition) to Wall Street regulation (too big to fail and no return to Glass-Siegel):
Goldman Sachs     $994,795
Citigroup Inc         $701,290
JPMorgan Chase     $695,132
Sidley Austin Llp    $588,598
UBS AG               $543,219
Wilmerhale Llp      $542,618
Skadden, Arps       $530,839
Morgan Stanley      $514,881
General Electric      $499,130
Latham &Watkins   $493,835
Obamatron & Folks, Inc. through the Federal Reserve returned the largest of Wall Street by secretly lending firms its $1.2 trillion in public money to help prevent their collapse during the global financial crisis.