Big Dams Are Bust

A new study from Oxford University says that policymakers have systematically underestimated the costs and completion time of large dam projects. Calculations from the Bruno Manser Fund show the costs of large dams are 96% more than estimated and implementation takes 44% longer than scheduled. The new information came in time for ASEAN's Renewable Energy Week, and is similar to the optimistic estimates once used by the nuclear power industry to justify building more nuclear power plants. The study sampled 245 large hydropower dams built in 65 different countries between 1934 and 2007, the largest comprehensive economic analysis ever undertaken of large dams defined as a wall height in excess of 15 meters (49ft). The researchers conclude there are two reasons for the errors in cost and time: excess optimism by experts and laypersons, and project promoters deceive policymakers and the public with strategic misrepresentations.

The ASEAN economic cooperation organization was meeting in Kuala Lumpur last week to discuss future energy strategy. Malaysia recently completed one of Asia's largest hydro projects [photo], the controversial Bakun Dam, whose overruns were worse than average. It was supposed to cost RM2.5 bn but the total is expected to be RM15.3 bn; completion was scheduled for 2003 but all eight turbines are not operational yet. Malaysians are paying for the 200-500% cost overrun because the dam was financed by the federal government using pension funds.

the Hornbill is the state bird

Malaysia's state of Sarawak on the island of Borneo is also considering building a series of giagantic dams as part of the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE). One of the proposed structures, the Baram Dam is budgeted at RM3bn but is likely to cost more than RM5bn. Scientists at the University of California, Berkeley have proposed an alternative scenario to the SCORE project to extend rural energy access, a key to reducing poverty in Sarawak, not to mention preserving valuable wild habitat [photo]. The Bakun dam demonstrates that a huge civil engineering project does not translate directly into easily available energy. Most of the Bakun energy goes to urban areas and large industries. Villages near the new dam are still without power. However, a decentralized mix of small-scale hydroelectric installations, biomass generators, and batteries is the most cost effective by 20% over diesel generators and can be accomplished without large scale destruction of a natural river basin. The two Berkeley scientists presented their findings to the ASEAN conference. Big projects have a significant advantage over small, local, sustainable energy developments that the researchers probably did not consider: politicians often score big bucks off a big project's sponsors.