The failure that is Iraq is brought home again to America. More US troops are being sent to the war zone to prevent the capture of Baghdad and protect American interests. About five hundred more will be joining the 300 "advisors" already approved bring total troop strength to 800. The Pentagon denies any intention to use air strikes to save the central government; however a new operations center is being establish in the country's far north at Duhok near Syria and Turkey. US Person thinks mission creep is well underway.Bombing of Anbar Province, center of the Sunni resistance, by the USAF may not far off*. Iraq's parliament met Tuesday for only two hours in the Green Zone fort before Sunni and Kurd delegations walked out on an intransigent Nouri al-Maliki. The acting speaker declared a lack of a quorum in the 328 member legislature. Maliki controls only about a third of those delegates. The head of the al-Maliki bloc at one point shouted in typical hyperbole, "We will crush with our shoes the heads of the those who drowned the Iraq flag," apparently referring to the Kurdish peshmerga who is dedicated to creating an independent Kurdish state. The United Nations tallied more than 2400 people killed in June. That is the largest number of dead since the United States military left the country in 2011. ISIS fighters have attacked the holiest Shia shrine at Samarra, the al-Askari (Golden Dome) mosque with mortars. Destruction of the mosque precipitated an unrestrained civil war in 2006. The Iraqi government claims its forces have driven out ISIS from Tikrit.
The jihadists attempting to erect a Islamic state in the desert are hampered by sectarian loyalty, lack of oil to fund operations, and fewer numbers. Both the major oil fields in the north and south are respectively under Kurdish or government control. But because the Baghdad government is so unpopular and its army disaffected, the jihadists have enjoyed an outsized success in areas where Sunnis are in the majority. As they approach the environs of Baghdad where Shia are more numerous and willing to fight, their progress will slacken. But the point is made in blood. The government largely created by the United States and propped up by its military might cannot stand on its own. Even if the jihadists fail to capture the city, the Kurds will insist on their independence. The future of Iraq seems to be that of a confederation of three states, divided on sectarian lines. This is not a result that could not have been foreseen years ago by American politicians and military leaders. Even Vice-President Joe Biden suggested this configuration as a solution to the sectarian strife threatening the central government when he was a senator. Readers old enough to remember the Vietnam defeat will recall that just when the US thought it was winning the war against the North, the Tet Offensive took place to remind us the war was not yet over. It seems Washington never learns.
*Iraq took delivery on Saturday of the first five Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack fighters at a cost of $500m. The planes are used and nearing their retirement age. An unconfirmed report is that six more advanced Su-30 jets (a two-seat variant of the Su-27) have also been sent into Iraq. Russian pilots will not fly the planes; Iraq has a cadre of qualified Su-25 drivers from the Iran-Iraq war. The US sold Iraq 36 supersonic F-16s for $3bn but they are not scheduled to arrive until September. When your government is in peril, slow and reliable is better. The Russian "Rooks" fit the bill.