Curtains for US Policy in Northern Syria

credit: Institute for the Study of War

US supported Syrian rebels have been defeated by Jabhat al-Nursa, a faction aligned with al-Qaeda, in their main northern strongholds. The rout of moderate rebels in Idlib province appears to be the death blow to the administration's strategy of selective support for moderate rebels fighting Bashir Assad's Syrian government. Al-Nusra is regarded by Syrians as less radical than ISIS, and when the US hit their main base as part of its expanded air war, the organization garnered increased support from the people of Idlib. Another moderate group, Harakat Hazm, a recipient of CIA support, lost its headquarters Saturday night. The group received training in Qatar as well as US weapons. Harakat Hazm fighters were surrounded and fled without a fight. Reports say large amounts of US-supplied weapons, including TOW antitank missiles, were captured by al-Nusra fighters. Western-backed Syrian Revolutionary Front gave up its villages in Jabal al-Zawiya on Saturday.

Idlib was the last northern province in which moderate rebels maintained a significant presence. They cooperatively ejected ISIS from the region in January. Now, except for a narrow strip around Aleppo, ISIS reigns over Syria's north. Western support has never been enough to make a tactical deference for the moderates and the war against the spread of ISIS is beginning to take priority. The US finds itself without a credible ground presence in the country to fight both enemies. The administration maybe forced to conceed defeat in Syria and concentrate on stopping ISIS in Iraq. What is clear is that it needs a proxy army on the ground superior to ISIS capabilities.

The Iraqi army is totally disfunctional; members kickback part of their salaries to their superiors so they do not have to show up and then take second jobs. The closest thing to an effective fighting force the West could support is the Kurd peshmerga. They demonstrated their willingness to defeat ISIS by preventing the capture of Kobane with the help of US air strikes. If US leaders adopt the 'save Iraq' alternative, the US will face the same difficult situation it faced in Vietnam and Afghanistan, a capable insurgent force with refuges across an international border. The other alternatives are aligning with Assad, a moral disaster, or returning US soldiers to a ethnic and sectarian conflict, a political disaster. (The United States has quietly ceased its investigation of Assad's alleged war crimes and the dictator has indicated his willingness to be nice to US) Or, we could just toss the Eisenhower Doctrine in the can and let Allah sort them out.