Wednesday, January 21, 2015

COTW: Those Flashing Red Signals

US has been beating this dead horse economy for a while, but this chart shows just how large the reality gap is between the official unemployment rate and one calculated using the labor participation rate which is much more reflective of reality. According to an economic consultant for the CIA, the actual unemployment rate, if calculated fairly is 23%:


This chart explains why all the near zero-interest money injected into the markets during the Fed's "quantative easing" ($3.1 trillion) has failed to produce real economic recovery, but mostly stock market froth ($710 trillion in derivative notational value or ten times global GDP). The velocity of money has fallen to a low not seen since the First Great Depression:


Velocity has collapsed because most Americans live from paycheck to paycheck which is consumed by the necessities of life. According to the Social Security Administration, 50% of us make less than $28,031 a year. The only ones who have money to spend are the ultra-wealthy as this "hockey stick" chart shows:


The CIA is watching the "misery index", an indication for the potential for civil unrest; so should you. It is now higher (32) than during the First Great Depression (27).