Monday, February 11, 2019

COTW: Crunching the Numbers on Single Payer

Hysterics on the right are already assailing Bernie Sander's Medicare for All proposal.  They see opposition to that proposal as a last-ditch effort to stave off pagan socialism in the good 'ole boy USofA, and will fight it tooth and nail.  Interestingly, a  think tank at George Mason University, VA   supported by the arch-conservative Koch Brothers found that Medicare for All would cost $32 trillion over 10 years, but would actually end up saving $2 trillion after 10 years over the current, broken for-profit system.  A twenty percent cut in the defense budget would save $140 billion a year at current levels of funding.

Putting hypotheticals aside, we look at an actual legislative plan put forward in the State of New York for universal health coverage in therer.  RAND corporation, which does a lot of numbers crunching for the Pentagon, performed an analysis of the state plan that would cover all New York residents, without co-pays.  The study concludes, similarly to the George Mason study at the federal level, that the state would initially pay more for health care to insure broader, and universal coverage, but in the long run would actually save 2% over the ridiculous kluge that passes for a healthcare system in the US.  Here are the charts, courtesy Vox.com:

The chart shows more spending on actual care services, as opposed to administration under the universal system. RAND found New York would be spending $23 billion less on overhead by 2031 while providing more people more coverage.  That's a good thing.  This chart amplifies the difference:

By 2031, a New Yorker would be paying half as much out of pocket for doctor visits and prescriptions, but with almost the same revenue impact as the current, broken system: new taxes of $210 billion versus $195 billion in premiums.  RAND makes a simple statement about the new taxes supporting the program: “We find that payments for health care would be more progressive under the NYHA [New York Health Act] than under the status quo.”  Another good thing. The last chart shows the wealthy, who can afford it, will pay more under New York's universal care program:


The bottom line is that both studies, at the state and federal levels support what US Person and others have been saying for a long, long time: single payer, universal care supported by new progressive taxes will save large amounts of overhead costs--due primarily to multi-payer, profit-driven health insurance industry--while delivering more care to more people at lower overall cost.  Even the Koch Brothers think so, apparently.