Tuesday, October 22, 2019

COTW: The Boom Busts


This chart from Bloomberg shows a decline in the amount of shale oil output in the US.  A corresponding decline is seen in the number of operating drilling rigs, dropping a total of 20% since November.  Costs of shale drilling are high with a low recovery rate of about 5-10%.  With the international price of oil stuck in the $50/barrel range and a high debt load, operators are feeling squeezed and investors are wanting more return.   Inevitable consolidation will occur and an emphasis placed on enhanced recovery techniques and more efficient supply chains.  Considering the damage the shale boom has done to the environment, perhaps an end to boom is a blessing in disguise.