Once again, the jingoists in the CMM are drooling over the prospects of another disastrous war. This time, Eastern Europe is the prospective battlefield. An invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces massed along its entire border will kill thousands of civilians. Midst the war hysteria, NATO governments have issued warnings for its citizens and diplomats to flee. How committed is the West and its military alliance to a diplomatic solution? Here is good indicator: the US is sending B-52s to the UK, and the 82nd Airborne to Poland. The pundits cannot wait to cheerlead another conflict because war is good for business.
US Person is not a Putin apologist. The former KGB spy is a ruthless autocrat with imperialist tendencies. Nevertheless, he is open to reason and diplomacy, and from the Russian point of view, he has some legitimate security concerns. NATO has expanded eastward to Russia's borders after the fall of the Soviet Union, contrary to George HW Bush's assurances that the US was not interested in NATO expansion. US Secretary of State James Baker III famously told Gorbachev,“not one inch east-ward”. Today, NATO is thirty countries up from the founding 12. Most of the newer members share borders with Russia. Consequently, the Russians believe they were deceived by western leaders. Then, under Clinton, the US advocated a putsch against Ukraine's pro-Russian president and favored eventual Ukrainian NATO membership. Nevertheless, Russia did agree to a European security arrangement at Helsinki, and a de-escalation of the separatist dispute in the Donbas at Minsk. Ukraine has little chance of becoming a NATO member any time soon. Its government is too corrupt and authoritarian for some member states. All members of the alliance must agree to a new member being admitted. But that apparently is not good enough for Putin, who views NATO as an offensive military formation. NATO is already in Poland and the Baltic. Ukraine is a country too close for Russian comfort.
Each side has its red lines. Russia will not give up the Crimea, which is majority ethnic Russian, historically Russian territory, and strategically important. The West will not categorically rule out Ukraine becoming a full-fledged member of its military alliance. There is plenty to talk about in between. For example, reinstating the intermediate nuclear forces (INF) treaty that the US dropped out of in 2019, and creating a de-militarized buffer zone between Europe proper and Russia. To create frenzy over troop movements within Russia's own borders is as if Mexico complained about US sending the 82nd Airborne to our southern border. Putin is making an obvious point--Ukraine cannot withstand a full-fledged Russian military assault--everyone knows that. The US, so far, is unwilling to risk a nuclear war with Russia by sending US troops to defend Ukrainian sovereignty. It is time to put the sabres away, and start talking seriously.