It becoming increasing obvious that Putin's war on Ukraine is anything but a blitzkrieg. Fighting on their native land, a motivated Ukrainian army has stalled the armored spear thrust toward Kyiv. Now the defenders are mounting successful counterattacks, driving the invader back twenty. miles or more. Mariupol, despite being reduced to rubble by shelling and missiles. refuses to capitulate, which is somewhat ironic given that the city was home to ethnic Russians. Civilians are trapped in basements beneath the ruins of their apartment homes. So far there has been few evacuation arrangements made between the waring sides. Kharkiv, the second largest city, is also withstanding the Russian's constant brutal hammering. Some 500 buildings have been destroyed. Photos show a wasteland similar to the devastation imposed on Germany during WWII.
Speaking of world wars: a new one would undoubtably be nuclear. Europe would suffer immense damage, huge casualties, and an unimaginable refugee crisis. Major European centers might end up like Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This outcome is what western leaders must avoid, even if it prolongs the war on Ukraine. That sound somewhat heartless, but the calculations are clear. Zelenskiy is calling for a no-fly zone, which borders on the irresponsible, but his country is being attacked by a much larger and well-equipped army willing to inflict mass casualties. A no-fly zone cannot be effectively enforced by the West without direct conflict with the Russian military. Such a zone would do little to protect Ukraine from long-range missile strikes emanating from within Russia. Destroying those assets would involve a direct attack on Russian soil, giving Putin the perfect excuse to drop a nuke somewhere in Europe. Better to give Zelenskiy SA-300 surface-to-air missiles in the inventory of several NATO nations. If NATO can replace fighter jets without the Russians finding out about it, that should be done too. In the age of satellite surveillance, such an effort would be difficult and dangerous, perhaps overland indirectly by rail or truck. US Person is not sure a twelve ton MIG jet can be partially dismantled for covert shipment.
Never underestimate a cornered, angry bear. Western leaders are concerned Putin might resort to chemical weapons such as tear gas (banned by the 1925 Geneva convention) and white phosphorus munitions (Zelenskiy has accused the Russian of deploying it). No need to disastrously over-react, the economic war is working, but if chemical weapons have been deployed, Europe as a whole must double down and totally embargo Russian oil and primarily gas. Oil money is what fuels the Russian war machine, and the war is getting very expensive in terms of money and men.
