Update: President Putin announced a partial mobilization on Wednesday, calling up reservists for the first time since WWII. He also said he would not bluff with the use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield. A sham referendum on Russian annexation of captured territory was also called this week, a move that was used in Crimea to legitimize its conquest. International leaders discounted the legitimacy of such referendums on Friday in Luhansk, Kherson and partly Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions during a war.
This chart from Statista tells why Putin thinks his Ukraine war is a proxy fight with the United States:
Ukraine is rolling back the territorial gains made by Russia earlier in the war. His conventional forces have been surprisingly inept while fighting a much smaller but motivated adversary. (Sound familiar?) Advanced conventional weaponry from the western alliance is making a difference on the battlefield. Whether Putin will resort to full mobilization or tactical nuclear weapons is an open question. It is clear he is not ready to talk. But using a tactical nuclear weapon comes with frightening consequences. NATO is armed to the teeth with low yield devices. Both France and Britain are estimated to have 500 such weapons available in addition to the formidable stockpile of the US. Escalation after the first use would be difficult to control, and perhaps lead to an apocalyptic strategic exchange. Use of chemical weapons,
according to some experts is much more likely.
