Ukrainian ground forces have been making slow progress in their counteroffensive since June of this year. Breaching the extensive Russian fortifications has taken longer than expected since western tactics using massed armor and air power have proven ill-adapted to the situation on the ground. Ukraine's Air Force is not up to the task of consistent close air support and western provided armor is susceptible to artillery strikes and pervasive land mines. Ukraine has chosen to advance in small infantry assault groups aided by drones, which allows them to clear obstacles with less loss of men and material. In one frontal assault in Zaporizhia Ukraine lost 31 vehicles. For comparison, the Allies took almost 90 days to bust through the fortified hedgerows of Normandy, and they had air superiority.
Reports are that Ukraine has beached the outer defensive lines between Robotinye and Verbove which puts them behind Russian defensive positions intended to counter frontal attacks. [map below]That means their armor can move through this breach and maneuver more successfully, if the Russians are not given time to fall back and reconstruct barriers. Ukrainian troops are now in a position to out-flank on the their left and move southwest downhill towards Tokmak, a key road and rail hub about 12 miles away. Tokmak is heavily defended and ringed by fortified positions, but the town does not necessarily have to be taken if it is enveloped and shelled. Tokmak is strategically key, so that if Ukraine takes the town or puts it under fire control, their offensive can be considered a partial success. One close observer has called Tokmak, "the single most strategic position in all of southern Ukraine." It connects via five main roads and the all important northeast-southwest rail line, which Russia uses to move most of its supplies.
On the northern front, Ukraine is moving to encircle the battered town of Bakmut. It has never been as strategically important as Tokmak, but has become a symbol of Ukraine's resistance since the Ukrainians were forced out of the town by Russian invaders in May. This cauldron is consuming a great number of Russia's best troops, paratroopers and Spetnaz, at a rate of around 1,000 per week. Advances have been made to the south of Bakmut with the significant recapture of the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka. Ukrainian forces now control the heights around the town giving their effective artillery a clear line of fire into its shattered remains. It will be a hard winter for the Russian occupiers.
