Small modular reactors (SMRs) were supposed to be the answer to increased demand for electrical generation driven largely by AI. The idea was to make small reactors on a production line, which allows savings of scale, shorter build times, and reduced regulatory burden. They could be transported to the site and hooked up in parallel to achieve the desired power output. NOT! This chart shows why:
NuScale's SMR is the
poster boy, but the same price explosion has occurred in units overseas: China Russia and Argentina. Domestically,
NuScale's cost doubled, X-Energy cost estimates have tripled and Hitachi's have at least doubled and possibly tripled. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis says SMRs are "still too risky, too slow, and too expensive". The study goes on to recommend that utilities, investors, and regulators should not look to SMRs, but to other alternative powers sources as the near term solution to energy transition to a more sustainable mode. This is because the development pattern emerging is depressingly similar to that of previous designs. The United State's only new, large scale plant, Vogel 3 and 4 in Georgia, began with a per kW cost estimate in the $9,000-10,000 range. Actual cost is $20,027, and the project took six years longer than estimated to build!
Its construction led to the bankruptcy of Westinghouse. China's operating Shinzo Bay 1 experienced a cost increase of 300%. Russia's operating SMRs experienced a 400% increase in cost. Argentina's CAREM 5 under construction experienced 700% increase as of 2021. That plant will not begin operation until 2027 according to current plans.
Question: Why bother with fission if the sun's energy is free? The money would be better spent optimizing the national grid for interruptible power. If private industry will not do this, then the federal government should and take ownership if only for national security reasons. Interstate power transmission is already regulated by the federal government (FERC).
