Unless something is done to control federal spending, especially reduction of military spending, the federal deficit will escalate out of control to the point that not even the Chinese will buy US Treasury securities for fear of default. The top owner is our own Federal Reserve Bank ($891bn):
Consumer spending, usually the biggest driver of the US economy, is down because unemployment is still at very high levels compared to previous modern recessions (red line, 2007):
Some economists are worried that the lost jobs may not come back even if there is a more robust recovery. There are more Americans not working as a percentage of the total population that at any time since the 80s, and many people are simply giving up trying to find work:
Adding to the negative effect of unemployment, consumers are still in deep debt and they are de-leveraging by paying off debt or simply defaulting:
charts source: Business Insider.com |