Whaa? Saying "I don't want the world to be paralyzed", the Obombanator is dead set on making Congress' joint constitutional war power dead letter. He does not think attacking another country at peace with the United States requires a congressional declaration of war or at least an "authorization to use force" such as obtained before invading Iraq. Successive presidents since Richard Nixon have operated to delete the enumerated power to declare war in Article I, Section 8 which they see as an inconvenient limitation on executive power post Cold War. However, a growing number of US lawmakers are saying the President needs an explicit authorization before attacking Syria. US Person thinks they are absolutely correct. A unilateral attack without UN authorization or imminent threat to the US is nothing less than aggressive war, regardless of humanitarian rhetoric.
President Putin told reporters in Vladivostok he thinks the Ghouta attack was a rebel provocation intended to drag the US into the Syrian civil war; if the President has evidence Assad's regime was responsible he should reveal it to the Security Council*. He wants to discuss Syria at the upcoming G-20 conference in St. Petersburg, but the Obombanator wants to face down Putin with his itchy trigger finger already satisfied. Before he gets too frustrated, he would do well to recall his own statement on the matter of war powers when he was a Senator: "The President does not have the power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation." [2008 response to the Boston Globe]The flagrant violation of constitutional limitations on war, regardless of justification, is truly an impeachable offense, just ask Joe Biden, seriously....
*US intelligence publicly says satellites detected rocket launches from government held territory early in the morning of August 21st, ninety minutes prior to social media reports of a gas attack appearing at around 2:00am local time. Subsequently there were "thousands of social media reports" of chemical-filled rockets impacting rebel held areas. It also intercepted a communication from a "senior official"--reportedly Assad's brother--confirming chemical weapons were used and expressing concern UN inspectors would obtain the evidence. According to US intelligence, chemical weapons personnel and "personnel associated with the SSRC" (Syrian security forces) were operating in the suburb of Adra from Sunday August 18th until Wednesday August 21st when they were told to cease operations. US intelligence thinks Assad's forces resorted to chemical warfare because conventional operations failed to clear urban areas under rebel control. Independent confirmation of nerve agents from the sites inspected by the UN would make a more convincing case against Assad's government.
{30.08.13}Still More: Statements coming from Washington indicated the Obamanator is willing to unilaterally attack Syria on evidence of a gas attack that is at this point largely circumstantial. Secretary of State John Kerry has adjusted his body count rhetoric upward to 1400, and refers constantly to still secret intercepts he claims unequivocally show direct involvement of the Assad regime in an attack on the eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus. The United States now claims its "core security interests" are at stake, rejecting any comparisons to the misrepresentations justifying the Iraq invasion. Senator Finestein, head of the Senate's Intelligence Committee was less categorical in her assessment of the intelligence, saying "it points" to Assad's involvement. The United States has moved a fifth cruise missile destroyer into position off the coast of Syria.
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| Daily Telegraph: a reported Syrian weapons facility* |
Further: Latest reports from the UK say Ed Miliband, Labour leader has withdrawn Labour support for a second voteafter the UN inspector's report. PM David Cameron is rather upset, allegedly crudely calling Mr. Milibrand a "f**king c*nt" for backing out. The first vote on the issue of Syrian intervention was 285 to 272 against. Cameron said he would respect the will of Parliament. Some Tory backbenchers are publicly commending Mr. Milibrand for forcing Cameron to listen. Mr. Obama may be forced to go it alone, if at all. Any military intervention whose ulterior goal is to topple the Assad regime is out of bounds. History has shown that the Iraq invasion was primarily not to deter Saddam Hussein from using weapons of mass destruction, but to remove him from power and therefore illegitimate on humanitarian grounds.
{29.08.13}More: The UK released an intelligence report today that indicates the case against Syria's dictator Bashir Assad is far from conclusive. The chair of Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee characterized the evidence against Assad as "a limited but growing body of intelligence which supports the judgment that the regime was responsible for the attacks." Significantly, the memo does not address the possibilities of accidental launch, an unauthorized release by an individual or group outside the regime's control, or the unintentional detonation of a ready cache by a conventional weapon. Predictably, US administration spokespersons heaped scorn on anyone having second doubts about the probity of a western punative strike, calling them "credulous" for entertaining "fanciful scenarios". Russia has asked that UN investigations continue and include those incidents it alleges were perpetrated by rebels in Alepo. Absent explicit UN approval of a punitive raid, the legitimate use of military force on humanitarian grounds would require convincing evidence of extreme humanitarian distress on a large scale such as the genocide that occurred in Kosovo in 1999, and the force used must be necessary, proportionate, and limited to the aim of deterring further chemical attacks in the opinion of UK's Attorney General. However, as it should be, Parliament will have the last word. Latest reports from the UK say Ed Miliband, Labour leader has withdrawn Labour support for a second vote after the UN inspector's report. David Cameron is rather upset, allegedly calling Mr. Milibrand a "f**king c*nt" for his backing out. Mr. Obama may be forced to go it alone, if at all. Any military intervention whose ulterior goal is to topple the Assad regime is out of bounds. History has shown that the Iraq invasion was primarily not to deter Saddam Hussein from using weapons of mass destruction, but to remove him from power and therefore illegitimate on humanitarian grounds.
When a State Department spokeswoman was asked if a punative strike would be launched if the gas release was done by a "rogue officer" she answered yes, but said that circumstance was "extremely conjecturable". Supposedly,US communication intercepts show the Syrian military used chemical weapons, but the intercepts also raise questions of command and control within the regime. Did the order to use nerve agents come from the top, or was it the independent decision of a field commander that Assad may not directly control such as in Hezbollah or Iranian Al-Quds units, and who have ulterior reasons to want US entangled in the Syrian Civl War? Blood, soil and other forensic samples in UN custody from Ghouta that would convincingly corroborate the accumulating evidence already in the hands of western intelligence(caution, graphic video) are being collected. The Damascus team is scheduled to return from there on Saturday, and their results shared with members of the UN Security Council.
{28.08.13}Latest: The United Kingdom, a usually reliable member of American led posses, stepped back from the brink of attack on Syria today. Labour secured a promise from Prime Minister David Cameron that a second vote would be held before the UK would launch an attack in retaliation for what Mr. Obama has already concluded was a chemical weapon attack in the Ghouta suburb of Damascus by the Assad regime. The President has not yet publicly revealed on what information his apparently irreversible decision is based, but he has made it perfectly clear he has decided to commit an act of war in retribution. Whether the President would act unilaterally and without congressional assent is not clear. Congress is officially in recess. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said investigators in Damascus need four more days to complete their work. Samples delivered to western intelligence so far show only microscopic amounts of sarin and the chain of custody for the samples does not meet international standards.
The shadow foreign secretary said Labour MPs are unwilling to give Prime Minister David Cameron a blank cheque. Eighty Tory MPs have also expressed reservations about a military strike. Labour leaders actually want six conditions to be met by the Tory Prime Minister in return for their support in the first vote on a strike scheduled for tomorrow night: a Security Council vote on the UN inspector's support; UK's own intelligence report to the Commons; compelling evidence that the Assad regime was responsible for last week's attack; a clear basis in international law for intervention, and a second vote to take military action. These conditions are in part a reaction to the highly criticized and slavish behavior of former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair during consultations with the former US president for an Iraq invasion. The alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction by Saddam Hussein--later proved to be a delusion of an administration bent on war--was the justification used by the Charlatan and Tony Blair to invade and occupy Iraq. By allowing the UN process to go forward before an allied attack, Russia and China would be put in the extremely awkward position of blocking the UN from protecting Syrians against a dictator willing to stay in power at any cost.
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| alleged March 23rd Alepo attack, Reuters |
western diplomats in Istanbul and were told to prepare for a military response to the gas attack. They were also told to continue preparing for peace talks in Geneva. The US and some of its NATO allies will target Syrian military installations, with the hope of tipping Assad's stalemate to a negotiated resolution. Syria has promised to defend itself. It has an air force equipped with a variety of Soviet-era aircraft including about 20 MiG29s that theoretically could reach allied ships offshore in the eastern Mediterranean. Western governments may wait until Arab nations can be convinced of the appropriateness of a retaliatory strike, or for additional clarity, at least until UN investigators have released their preliminary findings. Turkey is ready to support a military response. Saudi Arabia is a supporter of the rebel alliance but not yet publicly ready to support a western military strike.
Laboratories associated with the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention can detect minute amounts of nerve toxins and associated chemicals using mass spectrometers and gas chromatographs. At this point, only a week after the attack, there is still a high probability that "conclusive evidence of exposure to chemical warfare agents" can be found according to Dr. David Moore, a toxicologist formerly with the US Army's Aberdeen Proving Ground. British chemists found traces of sarin and mustard gas four years after Saddam Hussein's chemical attack on the Kurds. Analysts have to be careful because sarin, the nerve agent developed by the Nazis in 1938, was created as an insecticide and only later stockpiled as a chemical weapon. A well-equipped and experienced weapons team can usually differentiate between an industrial accident and a chemical weapons attack. China and Russia are objecting to any military action without UN approval which is unlikely given their veto power on the Security Council. Nevertheless, US Person thinks conclusive forensic evidence from respected international laboratories NOT national intelligence agencies with their own agendas will be very embarrassing even for Russia and China to ignore. Defense Secretary Hagel said US forces are "ready to go--just like that". When you are the globocop, apparently no need to declare war.
{26.08.13}Preparing for what is almost certain to be a missle attack on the
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| credit: Moses Brown |
According to Reuters, the inspectors have been fired upon by snipers, but reached victims and took blood samples. The investigators also hope to take soil samples near the point of detonation, a task made difficult by five days of shelling in the area. Obama has been bolstered in his conclusion that the Assad regime gassed its own people causing mass casualties after talking with the British Prime Minister and the French President. Both are known to favor military intervention in the Syrian civil war, and want Assad removed from power. Secretary of State John Kerry called the apparent use of chemical weapons by Assad a "moral obscenity" and vowed a response. Kerry was reacting publicly to videos posted on social media of casualties, but did not offer technical or medical evidence confirming the nature of the agent used. Rebels say at least 80 people were killed in the suburb of Mouadamiya and hundreds more in rebel held districts of Irbin, Ain Tarma and Jobar [map]. Médecins Sans Frontières, a French humanitarian group, said about 3000 people reported contamination, and 355 died of "neurotoxic symptoms". Rebel groups say 1300 were killed.
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| credit: BBC news |
The timing of a western attack is not yet settled, but went it comes it will be a display of air power similar to that used against Serbia and more recently in Libya to depose dictator Muammar Qaddafi. Russia and China will certainly block any effort at the UN Security Council to endorse a western military response. Germany is also opposed to western intervention. A Russian foreign ministry spokesman drew parallels to the Iraq invasion where the United States used erroneous intelligence about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to justify a full scale invasion and occupation. Foreign Minister Lavrov said military action without UN sanction would be a grave violation of international law. Russia has joined requests for a UN investigation of the Ghouta incident, but President Putin told Prime Minister David Cameron by telephone they had no evidence of who was responsible for the incident. Reports of gas attacks coincided with a government offensive in Ghouta, but it denies using chemical weapons.
*a battle between rebel forces that include the Al Qaeda ally al-Nusra Brigade and government forces is taking place just outside the pictured facility at al-Safira. The fear of chemical weapons falling into the hands of Al Qaeda undoubtably weighs heavily on Mr. Obama's mind. Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons is said to be very large and dispersed all over the country. The risk of gas releases from partially destroyed installations is high. A single heavy strike or even a series of missile attacks is unlikely to disable Assad's capacity for chemical warfare which he could conceivably use on the United States' regional ally, Israel, in a fit of suicidal escalation. Israel has attacked Hezbollah units and supplies three times from Syrian airspace without a Syrian response. Hezbollah fighters turned the tide of the civil war in Assad's favor. Syria has not signed the international Chemical Weapons Convention so accurate counts of its chemical warheads are not available. Western military experts estimate the regime has between 100 and 200 warheads that contain sarin, or the more potent VX. During the Cold War Russia supplied its client with the weapons; now Syria manufactures its own. American neofascists are of course arguing for a full scale invasion of Syria. This time, there really are WMDs!