Tuesday, June 10, 2014

COTW: When One Chart Doesn't Tell the Whole Story

Median house prices have recovered to their post-panic highs as this chart of data from the US Census Bureau shows:

What the chart does not show is the nature of that recovery. It is unusual and not indicative of previous economic recoveries in the US. New sales and construction contribute to a nation's GDP since they directly reflect increased production and consumer demand. These factors do not necessary follow rising real estate prices, however. The following charts reflect the real story behind the higher home prices driven not by new homeowners, but by rentiers with cheap cash seeking higher yields in a low-interest environment:


New homes sales are at half-century lows, and new home construction starts are at recession levels. Individual homeownership is at a 19 year low. How can the apparent contradictions be explained? The following charts show households are increasingly deciding to rent rather than buy in a high-price housing market. Rents are correspondingly going up:


Rentiers with readily available ZIRP money provided by the private central bank are buying real estate for yield, driving up home prices. So the conclusion suggested to US Person by the data is the real estate market recovery is not "normal" or due to economic growth, but by the influx of global capital seeking higher returns. As with any asset bubble, a price adjustment can not be far away.