Thursday, April 30, 2020

Sweden's Dangerous Play

The 60,000+ dead in the US is a gross undercount; experts know it.  “Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate,” said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany. “In a lot of places the pandemic has been going on for long enough that there has been sufficient time for late death registrations to come in, giving us a more accurate picture of what the mortality really was.” Recently an analysis of seven states fatality reports shows 9,000 excess deaths attributable to the virus not previously counted. With limited testing and tracing in the US, a more accurate count cannot be easily determined except by counting the number of excess deaths over non-pandemic totals for a similar time period. In US Person's opinion, informed by scientific thinking on the subject, a more accurate current death estimate is around 75-80,000, At this rate, the death count will be closing in on 200,000 by election day, six months away; it could go even higher if early relaxation of partial quarantines now underway in nearly half the states contributes to a devastating second wave like that experienced during the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918.

Of course the mentally-ill man in the VWH denies such a horrendous death toll in the world's most powerful nation is possible--he thinks the virus will just go, as if by magic.* There are only two ways to defeat the SARS CoV-2 virus: 1) by developing, testing, and widely administering effective vaccine[s], or 2) develop natural "herd immunity" by exposing the general public to the risk of infection. Natural immunity requires about 60-70% of a population contract the virus. This is the controversial route taken by Sweden, in an effort to save its economy from serious damage. Officials deny this is an explicit strategy, but it is so in effect; its own scientists have called for Sweden to comply with WHO recommendations on quarantine.

Sweden already has more dead that its Scandinavian "nanny" neighbors which have engaged in widespread lockdowns, and its rate is rising faster.  If the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases is used as a metric, Sweden’s rate is more than twice as high as Denmark’s and more than five times higher than Norway’s. On a per capita basis, Sweden's death rate exceeds the United States, which has the world's most SARS CoV-2 deaths. (149.61/million vs. 117.55/million) The world is watching Sweden's experiment in epidemiology, which is erratically emulated by the United States on ideological grounds.

The kiss off--profit or die!
*Epidemiology experts think that completely exterminating SARS CoV-2 is unlikely.  No vaccine is 100% effective against a pathogen. (it never goes to "zero")  No one knows how long immunity to the novel corona virus lasts.  It is likely to become similar to the various flu viruses, which infect humanity seasonally and for which vaccines are less than completely effective.  SARS CoV-2 differs from SARS, which killed 800 worldwide but was eliminated, in that people can be infectious with only mild symptoms or none at all, and novel virus is more easily transmitted with a wider community spread.  New Zealand is the only nation that appears to have exterminated SARS CoV-2, an exceptional achievement even though it is geographically isolated.  Recently Total Douche said, "There has been so much unnecessary death in this country. It could have been stopped and stopped short, but somebody a long time ago it seems decided not to do it that way, and the whole world is suffering because of it."  He so much lacks self-awareness that he did not realize that "somebody" was himself.  Estimates are that 60,000 more citizens died because of his negligent or deliberate inaction during the early stages of the pandemic.,