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| 2nd quarter 2020 | | |
Update: New economic data released shows the largest annual contraction in GDP since WWII, 32.9%. Unemployment filings increased for the second week in a row, with a 1.43 million people applying for benefits. Congress is deadlocked by a
delinquent party of naysayers in the Senate. Some 20 million American’s qualified for extra federal unemployment benefit set to expire on Friday; those payments now account for 15% of the entire nation’s wages. If Repugnants fail to act,
responsibility for Depression 2.0 can be placed directly in their tiny, money grubbing hands.
{27.07.20} Since you are living in the worse economic downturn since the Great One, you might expect the FIRE economy to show signs of collapse. This chart is one red flag:
The much followed Case-Schiller housing market index has turned negative for the first time in nine years. Strong demand in the first quarter of 2020 coupled with a tight supply have protected home prices from the disastrous economic effects of the pandemic, so far. As the crisis deepens and demand becomes increasingly slack, house prices will fall going into 2021. The National Home Price Index is expected to be down 6.6% by May, 2021. (light blue line)
In the chart above the HPI includes distressed sales, which the CS Index (columns) does not. It is interesting to note that in the previous economic crash of 2008-09, housing prices fell first; this time housing prices are a lagging indicator of the economic distress. Right now, renters are on the edge of the cliff created by Repugnant denial of virus lethality and niggardly relief proposals, but what happens when their vaunted base starts loosing their homes to foreclosure or distressed sales? Making 'Merica Great Again is starting to look like a Hollywood disaster movie without sequel.
Fixing this looming collapse will take more than a mask and illegal arrests. "It's yuge!":
US COVID DEATHS (est.): 218,600.
