Weekend Music

Stars jam on this classic Orbison hit. Roy's vocal range was unmatched. Note the guitar work by James Burton. This is one reason rock roll will never die.

'Toontime: This Week in Trump

credit: S. Sack;    Wackydoodle axes: Would y'all like a tour?

The House Select Committee has sent out its first round of subpoenas in its investigation of the January 6th Insurrection. The legal demands for documentation include White House communications. In US Person's opinion, the investigators will find that the origins of the attack can be traced back to the White House and perhaps even to Herr Trumpillini himself. It is too early to tell if that will be the case, but if it is, the Department of Justice should prosecute the insurrectionist to the fullest extend of the law. Individual One will run again in 2024, so a conviction for a serious federal crime may be the only way to stop him from destroying what remains of democracy in the United States.

The Committee is interested in finding how the regime sought to put political supporters in strategic positions after the November election was lost, presumably to aid a putsch One of the records request also seeks "documents and communications related to the mental stability of Donald Trump or his fitness for office." Demands went out to the National Archives and Records Administration, the Justice Department, the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Interior, the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In its demands to the Pentagon, the committee included all records and communications related to possible attempts by the former guy to remain in office after January 20, 2021, Inauguration Day, specifically naming the Insurrection Act, martial law, or use of military personnel. The committee also wants to know about the permitting process for the rallies on January 5th and 6th from which insurrectionists marched on the Capitol, allegedly at the invitation of the former occupant.

One instance of government foreknowledge of the attack was made public. Politico reported emails showed the Secret Service warned the Capitol police department the day before that their officers could face a violent attack by Trump supporters. The source of the information is not clear at this point because the emails were redacted pursuant to a FOIA request. One of these emails reads:

“Per our Denver Field Office, a concerned citizen reported that [REDACTED] were flying into BWI today to attend tomorrow’s rally and ‘incite violence,’” the email begins. “In addition, the source reports that [REDACTED] previously made threats against President-Elect Biden. The source also reported that [REDACTED] was driving to DC with gear and weapons, to include ballistic helmets, armored gloves and vests, rifles, and suppressors.”

The warning included specifics of the insurrectionists' motivation. They claimed to be protesting election fraud in support of Herr Trumpilini, who publicly peddled the 'Big Lie" for months before and after the election. He told his supporters in DC on January 6th to "fight like hell" to take back their government. This week the select committee indicated that it sent requests to telecommunications and social media companies asking them to preserve communications records related to the attack, including those of members of Congress. The rotten pile begins to stink.

credit:  D. Whamond

More Murder Hornets in Washington

Giant Asian hornets, known as "murder hornets" because of their propensity to destroy bee colonies have been located again in Washington State after the first known nest was destroyed by state agricultural officials last year. The second known colony of the vicious insects was found near Blaine, Washington in a dead alder tree about two miles away from the nest destroyed last October. This latest colony to be eradicated on Wednesday was a quarter mile from the Canadian boarder. This invasive species is thought to arrive here via international commerce.

Agricultural workers wore protective suits while vacuuming up the hornets which are about two inches long and carry a painful sting. Although a single sting is not fatal, repeated stings can kill. The hornets had excavated the interior of the stump to make room for a nine layer comb. About 1500 hornets in various stages of development lived in the nest. State officials said there are likely to be more nests not discovered yet and are relying on public reports to locate them. Some hornets have been tagged with miniature GPS devices to help in the fight to eradicate the pests before they spread. Capturing and eliminating queens seems to be the way forward.

In France, which has struggled with the murder hornet problem for longer than the US (2004), a clever beekeeper came up with a hornet trap to protect his honeybee colonies. In 2016 Brittany beekeeper Denis Jaffré came up with a device with a one-way mechanism like a lobster pot to catch the hornets, made from a wooden wine crate and metal mesh reports the UK's Guardian newspaper. The device has since been replicated using 3D printing in plastic. Jaffre received a French design award for his trap, and orders have been coming in faster than he can keep up. Jaffre is not the only beekeeper in Europe sick of seeing the murderers capture a bee and slice it up into edible pieces with their huge mandibles. He employs six staff and ships to several European countries.[photo credit: Guardian]

COTW: When Smoke Gets In Your Eyes

This chart shows an effect of the numerous wildfires burning in the west. Carbon dioxide level and particulates are increasing, setting up a horrendous feedback mechanism for global heating.  In California alone, the Department of Interior estimates that wildfires have released roughly 68 million tons of CO₂ or about 15% of all emissions by the state, the fifth largest economy in the world. Although the exact quantities are difficult to calculate, scientists estimate that globally, wildfires emitted about 8 billion tons of CO2 per year for the past 20 years. In 2017, total global CO2 emissions reached 32.5 billion tons, according to the International Energy Agency.
Besides the obvious consequences of wildfires becoming larger and more frequent, scientists in Idaho have found based on five years of data that dairy cows produce less milk and are more sick when exposed to high levels of wildfire smoke. Preliminary results show higher incidence of disease—especially mastitis, an udder infection—and increased risk of mortality among calves when wildfires elevated the level of fine particulate matter, or PM 2.5, in the air. Researchers also found changes in immune cells and signs of inflammation. Milk production dipped by three pouns of milk per cow, per day, which is a huge amount considering Idaho and California produce 40% of the nation's milk supply.

Weekend Music: A Man of Constant Sorrow

Reportedly the artistes behind George Clooney's satirical rendition of this bluegrass standard (dubbed by Dan Tyminski)in the movie O Brother Were Art Thou? were inspired by this man, Earl Stanley, a bona fide mountain wailer who was a member of the Clinch Mountain Boys and Stanley Brothers. Listen....

The New Bonanza

Further: Electric vehicles are expected to make a significant contribution to reducing carbon pollution in rich countries. About a third of emissions in the US is from combustion driven vehicles. Worldwide about 145 million electric vehicles are expected to be on the road by 2030  EVs are not without their own environmental impact: 12 million tons of lithium ion batteries are also expected to be retired by then.  What to do with the units containing mined minerals like cobalt, nickle and lithium. The immediately obvious answer is to recycle them, if we want to avoid mountains of poisonous electronic waste destined for landfills.  Recycling operations are just beginning to ramp up and will take time to mature. Now vehicle batteries are not designed with recycling in mind, for exmple using welds instead of removable fasteners to connect components, so complex operations are necessary to extract the valuable minerals. Tesla announced that it had started building recycling capabilities at its Gigafactory in Nevada to process waste batteries. In the meantime, another more efficient answer is to make batteries last longer. One answer is theoretically possible--sold-state batteries--but those are still in the laboratory stage.{13.05.21} Lithium-ion batters that can no longer power cars and trucks still have residual capacity, which can be used for storing energy generated by solar panels and wind turbines.  Demonstrations of this capacity are underway.

Enel Group uses 9o expired Nissan Leaf batteries in a energy storage facility in Spain. Powervault in the UK uses expired car batteries as part of a home storage system.  Getting more bang for the buck out of EV batteries also allows replacement of toxic lead-acid batteries. This is a big bonus in tropical countries like Africa where the heat degrades lead-acid batters quickly, requiring more frequently recycling. There are few facilities that can do this safely in the developing world.  Lead is a particularly dangerous neurotoxin, affecting young children's brain development. This is one reason governments require high levels of lead-acid battery recycling and safe disposal of remains. Similar regulation is needed for the new generation of batteries.  The EU proposed changes to its regulations targeting them. It proposes target rates of 70% for battery collection, recovery rates of 95% for cobalt, copper, lead and nickel and 70% for lithium, and mandatory minimum levels of recycled content in new batteries by 2030. Also being considered are digital labels that traces the individual unit's history, reports its condition and remaining capacity, helping vehicle manufacturers direct it for reuse or to recycling facilities.; While all of these developments are being cogitated and priced, do not forget to walk or ride a bike to your destination of choice.

{17.08.21}Remember when the deranged former guy offerred to buy Greenland from Denmark? This story may be what he had in mind. Billionaire boys Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are headed for the new bonanza in Greenland. A company backed by them, KoBold Metals, signed a joint venture agreement with Bluejay Mining to explore the island for lithium and other rare minerals to be used in electric car manufacture. KoBold will pay $15 million for exploration costs in exchange for a 51% stake in the Disko-Nuussuaq project on Greenland's west coast. As the ice cap rapidly melts, Greenland will be the locus for a rush of exploiters eager to cash in on the rich load of minerals believed to be buried under the ice sheet. KoBold Metals whose private investors include Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a energy fund owned by Microsoft owner Bill Gates, Amazaon owner Jeff Bezos, and Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, uses artificial intelligence as an exploration tool. Now that is a buzz! Norway also owns a slice of the action through its state run energy company, Equinor. Bluejay said its geological studies found the area in western Greenland to be similar to Russia's Norilsk region, a main producer of nickel and palladium. Bluejay also said it was delighted to have KoBold as a partner which is at the "pinnacle of technical innovation for new exploration methods, backed by some of the most successful investors in the world." That only proves the adage--you got to have money to make money.

'Toontime: When Will They Ever Learn?

credit: M. Ramirez, Las Vegas Review-Journal; Wackydoodle axes:  Will they serve drinks?

While the Swamp enjoys its usual game of finger pointing after a foreign policy disaster, US Person wants to know how long the Taliban will allow the Kabul airport to operate? They clearly do not want Afghans to leave, taking their skills and treasure with them, yet as long as there is a safe way out, some Afghans will line up to get on board. One lever the US still has over the Taliban is the $7bn in Afghanistan's reserves it hold in its banks. Airports are notoriously easy to cut off because the runways are vulnerable to shelling. The cargo jets (c-17) the US has been using to transport out its nationals and collaborators may be able to take off on bomb damaged strips, but that is a perilous proposition especially when your cargo bay is full of passengers.

The consensus pundits and intelligence officials seem to have reached is that a Taliban victory was inevitable, the only question being how long the government should have held out without direct US military involvement. The former guy negotiated (badly) the withdrawal, a fact conveniently forgotten by professional administration critics; talk is so cheap. Biden is getting blamed for a hasty force extraction. Yes, it could have been planned better, but the government collapsed much more quickly than even the usually overoptimistic CIA expected. Facing a no-win situation, the Afghan national army simply walked away along with its president. Sadly, the same factors--lies, delusions, ignorance, cruelty and greed--that contributed to the Vietnam defeat are present in Afghanistan. The invasion was premised on self-defense from terrorism, so US leaders ignored the Vietnam experience in nation building. Here is the lesson US Person doubts will be taken away from America's twenty-year inhumane attempt to modernize Afghanistan into a liberal democracy: America is not the exceptional nation. Its leaders' messianic obsession with global policing must end, or this nation will destroy itself from within.

credit: N. Anderson

Reinstate him to the locked ward!

Oregon Kills Wolf Pups

When US Person was not looking the state of Oregon killed two wolf pups, three and a half months old, of the Lookout Mountain pack Oregon employees killed the two from a helicopter pursuant to a lethal removal permit issued in response to rancher's complaints of livestock predation. The heartless removal once agains demostrates teh utter subservience of state wildlife officials to private agriculturalists. The kills were on public land as where the livestock. The permit allows the killing of five wloves and does not expire until August 21st. The breeding alpha pair, which are not covered by the permit, are wearing tracking collars, which only increases the perversity of the eradication operation. These wolves are attempting to feed a large litter of pups that is a difficult task even when natural prey is plentiful. The wolves killed two animals and injured two more according to ODWF personnel. Baker County Commissioner Mark Bennett requested the kill permit on Tuesday, July 27. Bennett, who is chairman of the county’s wolf committee, included with his request to ODFW a letter from the stock owners.

Lookout Mt. pack member

Sixty-six percent of the public support wolf reintroduction in Oregon, yet state authorities consistently bow to the demands of private livestock owners who subsidize their herds using public resources. In areas wolves inhabit, livestock owners should be required to corral their animals or routinely monitor their grazing activity. Culling wolves is not a viable long term solution in a state that has expressed a policy to allow wolf recovery. Two centuries of cattle grazing has degraded the western landscape. It is time to restore a more natural balance to the land; a cost for the privilege of public grazing should be the toleration of wild creatures inhabiting the same environment. The agency said in response to conservationist outrage over the lethal removal that it was reducing the caloric needs of the Lookout Mountain pack by eliminating the non-hunting pups. Conservationists called the cull, "unacceptable". The incident shows how out of bounds wolf management is in the west. Federal protection must be reestablished if the wolf is to be saved from eventual extinction because of a sub-culture's irrational fear and loathing of an ecologically beneficial species. [photo: ODWF]

Flash: Afghan War is Over

Update: The Pentagon's Chief of Staff testified to Congress that he did not think the evacuation of Kabul would end like the collapse of Saigon in 1975. NOT! Video footage has emerged showing desperate Afghans clinging to a moving US military aircraft attempting to flee the victorious Taliban. Some Afghans fell to their deaths from C-17 undercarriage as the plane flew away over Kabul. Horrified onlookers saw them fall one by one. Access to the Kabul airport is now only through multiple Taliban checkpoints; the civilian side of the airport is unsecured and civilian flights have been cancelled. Embassy staff have been evacuated by helicopter to the secured perimeter. Thousands of Afghans seeking escape have crowed onto the tarmac. Three were reportedly run over by a moving aircraft. US officials have ordered in more personnel to enforce order, doubling the size of the contingent covering the exit; two armed men at the airport were killed by US soldiers.

"Step back" apologetics aside, the parallels to Vietnam are striking: the US backed a corrupt regime with limited popular support against a motivated nationalist insurgency. The empire wasted billions attempting to stand-up an army that in the end was demoralized, accommodating, and unwilling to fight. The American warlords held their charges in little regard, disdaining a culture they do not fully understand and were attempting to supplant with a version of their own. They underestimated the resolve of the enemy, influence of the drug trade, and overestimated their technological advantage. A notable difference: Saigon held out for eleven days against the NVA, the Taliban took Kabul in a single day thanks in large part to capitulations negotiated by kinsmen.

Taliban aboard captured HumVee in Kabul

{15.08.21}The Taliban has entered Kabul, the last city held by government forces. There are negotiations with Taliban leaders for a hand-over of government to prevent a bloody battle for the capital. The current president, Asraf Ghani, has fled the country, reports say to Tajikistan. The only issue remaining for the US is: can it extract civilian personnel without major fighting or "mission creep" by reinforcements sent in by air? Presumably the two Marine battalions and one Army battalion will be able to hold the international airport open for evacuees, hoping to avoid scenes reminiscent of Saigon, 1975. A battalion of the 82nd Airborne will also go in as reinforcements, representing another 1,000 infantry personnel. The Secretary of State said earlier that the mission is temporary, and only for the purpose of evacuation and self-defense. Subsequent events will prove the veracity of that statement.

The speed of Afghan government collapse has shaken the White House The Talib fighters took Mazar-i-Sharif in the north on Saturday. Jalalabad in the east fell today, the last city under government control other than the capital. In many cases militia and government security forces fled before the nationwide offensive without a fight, proving once again that ideology is stronger than bombs. US intelligence officials thought the defeat of the central government would at least take months or perhaps a year--it happened in weeks. Even the South Vietnamese government lasted two years after American troops departed. The US expended some $88 billion*, twenty-two thousand casualties, and twenty years trying to set up a viable secular government to control the fractious tribal region. It fragrantly ignored the futile experience of the Soviet and British empires in Afghanistan, staying in country longer than the British and twice as long as the Soviets. Its military failure in South Vietnam was also deemed irrelevant to its nation building effort. In reality the war in Afghanistan was a twenty-year gravy train for the Pentagon and its civilian contractors.

Afghanistan must be left to its own devices, however distasteful that may be to western liberal sensibilities. The United States may have been justified invading the country to find and kill Osama Bin Laden in 2001, but once he escaped Tora Bora and fled to Pakistan, that justification evaporated. The Taliban has said it would not allow the country to again become a base of operations for international terrorists. Now, the west has no choice but to accept their word.“I was the fourth president to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan—two Republicans, two Democrats,” Mr. Biden said on Saturday afternoon. “I would not, and will not, pass this war onto a fifth.” He should be given credit for the courage of his conviction. [photo credit: NYT]

 a Chinook over the US Embassy in Kabul: AP

 

*spent on creating an Afghan government army. According to Brown University researchers the total cost of the war is estimated at $2.3 trillion UN's estimate for slowing climate change: $300 billion

'Toontime: This Week in Planetary Destruction

credit: Steve Sack, Minneapolis Star-Tribune

Scientists say July was the hottest month on record, beating the previous mark set in 2016. Records began 142 years ago; global land and ocean surface temperature last month was one degree Celsius, 0.9C (1.6F), hotter than the 20th-century average of 15.8C (60.4F), The symptoms of plantary heating are there to be seen on screen--from wildfires in the western US and Greece to flooding in central Europe and China. Sicily it the highest temperature ever recorded in Europe, 48.6C/119.5F. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that humans’ burning of fossil fuels has “unequivocally” heated up the planet to temperatures not seen on Earth in around 125,000 years. It will only get worse if nothing is done by governments around the world. The normally wet and mild Pacific northwest is experiencing its second record heatwaave this summer with temperatures in Setattle and Portland hitting triple digits. Portland registered 103/39C on Thursday and Bellingham, WA cracked 100/38C for the first time in recorded history. Wildfires are burning in drought striken forests, making the atmosphere unhealthy to breath. The 413,000 acre Bootleg fire, second largest in Oregon history, is largely contained but still burns, poisoning the atmosphere with soot and smoke.

credit S.Sack, Minneapolis Star-Tribune

Mass Die Off in Butte Creek

Joe Biden only got Repugnant support for his infrastructure bill after climate change provisions were deleted. If any action on planet heating is to take place in this Congress, it will be up to Democrats who are hobbled by copperheads like Joe Manchin. Repugnants took shots at the bill despite 19 of them supporting its limited provisions. Punk legislator, Josh Hawley criticized it for supporting salmon recovery programs; perhaps after reading this post he might change his mind, but US Person doubts it.

Spring Chinook migrating up what is left of the Sacramento River watershed face numerous man-made obstacles, but in a year extreme drought, the struggling salmon were simply overwhelmed.  All juvenile winter run salmon are expected to expire before spawning due to water mismanagement, so the expectation of a large adult run in the spring was welcomed news.  An estimated 18,000 fish were expected to return, the second largest migration since 20,000 fish swam up the Sacramento in 1998.  However,  a large number of Chinook are expiring before they spawn due to oxygen depletion and the outbreak of two fish diseases.  Spring Chinook are  a distinct run that ascends the high elevation tributaries of the Sacramento.  They reach maturity in the river and do not spawn until fall.  Some of the best remaining habitat for salmon are tributaries of the river: Battle Creek, Mill Creek, Deer Creek and Butte Creek.  In Butte Creek 12,000 salmon have died before spawning according to the latest in the water survey.  The fish are protected from human fishing, but not water temperatures that are running between 70 and 80 degrees.

Butte Creek run before the mass die-off

Several dams have been removed to aid this unique run, but the hydroelectric operations of PG&E still stand in the way of their full recovery. PG&E’s De Sabla-Centerville project brings reservoir water over the mountains into Butte Creek for hydroelectric power.  The reservoir water is warmer than the creek's high altitude water. Agencies have refused to take action against PG&E, which  wields god-like political influence in the state of California.  According to salmon experts the fish need to be able to reach their spawning grounds without encountering warm water and decreased flow due to diversions. The spring Chinook also swam upriver to the Butte Slough outfall gate below Colusa on the Sacramento River. They bashed their heads against the outfall gates for weeks before the Department of Water Resources opened the gate in late March under pressure from commercial recreational interests.

Irony is dead, but this is tragic: PG&E recently informed the FERC that it would not renew its permits for the DeSabla project because it is, “no longer economically viable for PG&E’s electric customers.” So the bottom line is salmon are needlessly dying in the thousands for a unprofitable hydroelectric project that the company is trying to sell. A salmon activist told reporters, “When it comes to expanding habitat, this is probably the best path possible to expand salmon habitat in California. Prior to the fish kill, we had over 18,000 fish knocking at the door, with no trucks involved and no recapturing of juveniles needed. It’s a wild system that operates the way it should, but we have to get the hydroelectric project out of the way.” Friends of Butte Creek are suggesting the hydro project be terminated and a tunnel constructed to divert cold water into Butte Creek. Tell that to PG&E and people like Josh Hawley. [photo credit: Friends of Butte Creek]

WIMPS in Space!

No, NOT those billionaire boys paying for exorbitant joy rides into space (barely) because they can, but the search for the mysterious WIMP subatomic particle deep within the crannies of the Earth. At an Italian underground lab in the Gran Sasso and in the Davis Cavern in South Dakota scientists are making a last ditch effort to isolate the weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP), which so far only exists in theory. Why? Because WIMPS are thought to hold the universe together, making it a fundamental subatomic particle. The search began in the last century is something akin to the legendary search for the Holy Grail.

Astronomers found that galaxies were rotating too fast to withstand forces pulling them apart. Something had to account for the missing gravitational effects by a factor of 10. At first the search was focused on finding a cosmic bodies that could not be seen from Earth such as brown dwarf stars and neutron stars. but once the numbers were crunched and powerful telescopes searched into far reaches of the electromagnetic spectrum, these candidates were insufficient to account for the missing mass. Dubbed "dark matter", scientists reformed their hypotheses from the incredibly large to incredibly small. Vast numbers of subatomic particles that interact only very rarely with ordinary matter are thought to be whizzing around  in interstellar space, accounting for the missing mass of the universe that holds it together. Scientist calculate that dark matters is 85% of the mass of the universe. That is a lot of matter scientists have been searching for during the last two decades without success.

Lux-Zepplin WIMP detector

The Earth is constantly bombarded by cosmic energy making the search for such an elusive, and possibly non-existent particle extremely difficult--background radiation drowns out detection. Neutrinos are also small and electrically neutral, which make them able to penetrate meters of crust. So the searchers took their WIMP detectors deep underground. The Gran Sasso National Laboratory is in a tunnel 1.4km below a stone mountain, which makes it one of the least radioactive places on Earth. Researchers have further shielded their sensitive detectors in spheres of xenon gas surrounded by purified water to isolate their instruments.

Dark natter detectors are reaching the limits of available technology, yet no one has found a WIMP. The Gran Sasso detector known as XENONnT and the other, Lux-Zeplin, [photo credit: UK Guardian] constructed in an old South Dakota gold mine, are filled with several tonnes of xenon – much more than has been put in any previous device that should increase chances of a nucleus being struck by a wimp. Both will be run for a period of years to improve the possibility of detection. Such a collision would produce an infinitesimal spark of light energy that can be observed. If the two teams fail to find WIMPS. scientists will have one final chance to use current technology to find them by joining forces to create one final super detector.  Making detectors even more sensitive would be self-defeating as they would be overwhelmed by trillions of neutrinos that penetrate the Earth every second.

It may be that dark matter is undetectable in this universe, or more troubling, modern physics' understanding of the cosmos is incorrect. Nevertheless, the search for the ghost particles continues because as one researcher explained, "It is quite simple. There would no Earth or humans if there had not been dark matter. Without these particles' considerable mass, galaxies would not have been able to form in the early universe." The search may be akin to looking for lost keys under a lamppost, or finding the Holy Grail. The search for WIMPS is perhaps a matter of faith.

For my thoughts are not your thoughts, neither are your ways my ways, saith the Lord.    [Isaiah 55:8].

China's Wanderers Head Home

After seventeen months on the road--an epic journey by any standards--China's herd of wandering elephants is headed back home. Fourteen Asian elephants of various age were safely guided across the Yuanjiang river [photo] in Yunnan on Sunday. A path is being made for them to return to their reserve in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture. The herd is still 125 miles away in Yuanjiang. Chinese people closely watched their progress on social media, which probably has contributed to their safety so far. During the trek in November, a calf was born in Pu’er. The elephants forage freely en route, causing some property damage including devouring a truck load of pineapples. They have gotten into stores of grains left over from fermentation, leading to reports of at least one drunken elephant. Authorities began supplying them with more than two tons of elephant fodder, and kept the enthralled public from interfering with their progress. A team monitored the herd via drone 24/7, capturing images during their rest periods [photo].

Explanations offered for the elephants' journey vary widely, but the most likely is the one stated by professor of mammal conservation, Zhang Li, at Beijing Normal University, “Large-scale human engineering developments have exacerbated the ‘islanding’ of elephant habitats. The traditional buffer zones between humans and elephants are gradually disappearing, and the chances of elephants’ encountering humans naturally increase greatly.” Elephants are known to migrate along trails that matriarchs memorize to lead their family groups to water and food. Bon voyage on your return, elephants. There is no place like home!

COTW: The Actual Death Toll

Close readers of PNG know that US Person's post of the US death toll from COVID-19 is substantially higher than official figures. Although based on CDC reported figures, his figure is about 200,000 deaths higher than official reports. Here is the reason why. Epidemologists and public health officials generally agree that the most accurate way to assess the impact of a infectious disease like COVID-19 is to measure the number of "excess deaths" or the number of reported deaths compared to the expected number before the disease event. If this measure is used, deaths in the United States exceed the number of expected deaths for the period March 202o to March 2021 by about 400,000. The chart below shows the ratio of reported deaths to expected deaths around the world. In the US the ratio varies from state to state since states are responsible for these death statistics, and it ranges from 1.25 to 1.75.

If you multiply the official figure of about 633,00 deaths from COVID-19 by the ratio of actual to expected deaths you obtain 791,250 up to 1,107,750. PNG's estimate is within this range; some experts put the death toll higher at 912,345 The point is that official estimates are under counts. Just how large that under count is can be disputed. Deaths that are directly due to COVID-19 are likely under reported in many locations, particularly in settings where COVID-19 testing is in short supply.

So now know you know why PNG reports a more realistic level of deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States. It is indisputable that the number of COVID-19 deaths exceed the generally accepted estimate of 675,00 US deaths (CDC) due to the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918, which is in itself remarkable given the rapid development of effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. The Delta variant that has spread rapidly due to low vaccination rates and morbid anti-social behavior will drive the death rate even higher as the virus continues to mutate. It's evolution, baby!

US COVID-19 DEATHS (est.): 860,782

'Toontime: This Week in Trump

credit: Tom Tomorrow

Pieces of Herr Trumpillini's milti-faceted coup attempt are falling out in public. The extent he was willing to use official levers of power to thwart a legitimate transfer of power to the president elect is horrifying. More than just the thugs who marched on the Capitol at his command January 6th is his repeated efforts to use the Department of Justice to declare the election a fraud in order to throw the election into the House of Representatives where his party's majority control of state legislatures would make the difference. He even contemplated invoking the Insurrection Act to retain power.

Richard Donoghue, who was acting Deputy Attorney General during the regime's final days, is perhaps ready to tell the tale of dangerous presidential malfeasance. He will speak in private before the House Oversight Committee attorneys about Herr Trumpilini's demands that DOJ declare the election, "corrupt and leave the rest to me and R. Congressmen" according to Donoghue's contemporaneous notes of his telephone call. He may also detail the attempt to substitute Trump DOJ minion Jeffery Clark for acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen. Clark drafted a letter to Georgia election officials urging them to overturn the election results in their state. Donoghue told the plotters to take a hike when asked to sign the letter. Apparently there were six of these letters sent to swing states requesting assistance in overthrowing the elected government of the United States. This coup attempt is without parallel since succession of southern states begat the Civil War. Even if Donoghue is not willing to be candid with investigators, enough of the paper trail exists to make it clear that Trumpillini is not just a tax cheat, but an insurrectionist as well.

Proof unto the fifth generation....

 

"He did a lot of good things....."

COTW: Coal's Demise, Planet's Crisis

More:  The influx of fresh water from the melting Greenland ice cap [chart below] has the potential of shutting down the Gulf Stream, which would be catastrophic say scientists.  Research has found an "almost complete loss of stability over the last century" of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that includes the Gulf Stream. These ocean currents are already at the slowest level in 1600 years. This circulation is responsible for a significant portion of Europe's relatively mild climate. Scientist studying climate change are becoming increasingly concerned about climate tipping points, which would bring about large, sudden changes in climatic conditions. An analysis from 2019 found that several tipping points have already been crossed such as the Amazon Basin becoming a net emitter of carbon dioxide and the rapid melting of Greenland's land-based ice sheet.

Research on the AMOC shows that it has two states over geologic time: a fast, strong state that has existed for millennia into modern times, and a slow, weak one that may be reoccurring due to global heating. [chart] Eight independent data sets confirm that rising temperatures are increasing the system's instability, a signal that a tipping point in the system is occurring. Scientists cannot pinpoint a time when an AMOC collapse will occur--it could occur in decades or take a century, but there is no doubt the system is changing.  Once the ocean current system is pushed past the tipping point it reaches a new equilibrium (collapsed state) until the present state is exceeded a phenomenon called "hysterisis", see chart.

hysteresis from Stommel, 1961

{02.08.21} The chart below shows the percentage of use for the major energy sources. Natural gas has substantially increased its share of electricity production while coal continues to crash and alternatives such as wind and solar are now the second largest producer, which is good news for the planet:0

Natural gas is still a fossil fuel that produces carbon dixoide as combustion waste product, but is cleaner than coal. The increse in natural gas use is driven by the shale boom in the US, and the need to replace base fuel loads historically handled by coal plants at lower cost. The price of natural gas has dropped considerably since development of shale oil deposits. Gas plants are more easily scaleable and produce less waste to dispose. Renewables have incresed steadily since 2005 when costs have compared more favorably with coal. The only problem with the chart is that the transition to cleaner electricity production is not occurring fast enough to compensate for rampant climate change. Warming is the subject of the next chart that shows the extent of the Greenland's ice sheet melting. Greenland's ice cap is mostly on land, so melting (red) will affect global sea levels:

The recent heat wave that produced record temperatures in the far north has caused a massive melting event that could cover the state of Florida in two inches of water. Nerlerit Inaat airport in the northeast of the Danish territory recorded 23.4 degrees centigrade on Thursday, the highest recorded there since records began. Recorded melting began in 1990 and has accelerated since 2000. The mass of melted ice has quadrupled since then. The Greenland ice sheet, if completely melted, would raise the ocean levels by six to seven meters, enough to inundate many coastal cities.

Is Wildlife Shrinking?

Believe it or not, the largest cause of bird mortality in the US is collision with buildings. Glass covered structures that reflect sunlight are a confusing obstacal for migrating birds who interpret the glass sides of tall building as open air space. In Chicago, the Field Museaum collects the victims of collisions for measurement and add them to the ornithology collection. These make up about 20% of the collection by now, over 100,000 killed in four decades. A curious data point emerged from this collection of 35,000 dead birds: they have been shrinking—and rising global temperatures are likely to blame, according to a 2019 analysis of measurements. And it is not just birds that appear to be getting smaller. A growing body of research says that many wild creatures are shrinking--from cold blooded amphibians to warm blooded mammals.

An ecological principle known as Bergmann's rule may be at work producing this phenomenon. It states as originally formulated that within a genus populations and species of larger size are found in colder environments, while populations and species of smaller size are found in warmer regions. This rule can be seen in penguin populations around the globe. [see chart] Temperate species tend to be smaller in size, while those inhabiting Antarctica are the largest. This rule has also been found to operate over geologic time. Temporary, reversible dwarfing of mammals has been noted during two relatively brief upward excursions in temperature during the Paleogene( (66-23 million years ago)

Measurements made in Chicago show the length of birds' lower leg bones (an indicator of body size) shortened by an average of 2.4% and their wings lengthened by 1.3%.  Scientists say that just as in the pass we can expect evolutionary changes to improve adaptation to a climate warmer by 1.5℃  Other studies on birds, deer, rodents, insects, and fish show similar patterns.  As with any rule in biology, its is a generalization of the prevalent facts, and their are examples of variations and contradictions.  The point being that natural systems are really complicated. Even if theory and lab research suggests that animals consistently shrink under warming, the exact result of climate change is not hard and fast in Nature, the greatest laboratory. Rather than study shrinking dead birds in a museum, perhaps it would make more sense to save energy, reduce warming, and conserve bird lives simply by turning off those lights.