COTW: The Actual Death Toll

Close readers of PNG know that US Person's post of the US death toll from COVID-19 is substantially higher than official figures. Although based on CDC reported figures, his figure is about 200,000 deaths higher than official reports. Here is the reason why. Epidemologists and public health officials generally agree that the most accurate way to assess the impact of a infectious disease like COVID-19 is to measure the number of "excess deaths" or the number of reported deaths compared to the expected number before the disease event. If this measure is used, deaths in the United States exceed the number of expected deaths for the period March 202o to March 2021 by about 400,000. The chart below shows the ratio of reported deaths to expected deaths around the world. In the US the ratio varies from state to state since states are responsible for these death statistics, and it ranges from 1.25 to 1.75.

If you multiply the official figure of about 633,00 deaths from COVID-19 by the ratio of actual to expected deaths you obtain 791,250 up to 1,107,750. PNG's estimate is within this range; some experts put the death toll higher at 912,345 The point is that official estimates are under counts. Just how large that under count is can be disputed. Deaths that are directly due to COVID-19 are likely under reported in many locations, particularly in settings where COVID-19 testing is in short supply.

So now know you know why PNG reports a more realistic level of deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States. It is indisputable that the number of COVID-19 deaths exceed the generally accepted estimate of 675,00 US deaths (CDC) due to the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918, which is in itself remarkable given the rapid development of effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. The Delta variant that has spread rapidly due to low vaccination rates and morbid anti-social behavior will drive the death rate even higher as the virus continues to mutate. It's evolution, baby!

US COVID-19 DEATHS (est.): 860,782