TWIT: Deja Vu Again and Again

Perhaps Jack Smith, the all-American special prosecutor, is reading PNG because he has noticeably speeded up his criminal investigation of Herr Trumpillini.  Two more subpoenas went out to Trump family members this week. Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, were summoned to testify.  Since Pence is fighting his appearance on dubious constitutional grounds, Ivanka's testimony could be significant since she was in the room when her daddy spoke to Pence about throwing out the electoral vote count in several states.  She was also one of several people, including her husband, that attempted to dissuade her father from launching the autogolpé.  Smith is also in court to compel Pence's testimony. 

The last time the 'speech and debate' privilege was asserted by another plotter, it took four months to resolve the issue.  Retired judge Michael Luttig, a respected conservative jurist who advised Pence against participating in the coup, wrote a Times editorial advising Pence to comply with his subpoena and testify.  Lutting sees his resistance as politically motivated. Shape-shifter Pence--now a member of the Executive branch, then a member of Congress as it suits--hopes that his refusal will be credited to him as righteousness by MAGA voters. Lutting also expressed the opinion that federal courts would make short change of his 'hail Mary' defense given the Supreme Court precedents set during the Nixon debacle.

Speaking of that one, a least one pundit thinks that Trump was given societal license to do what he did by the precedent of Dick Nixon escaping prosecution for his criminality while in office. Former Special Prosecutor Leon Jaworski did not want to prosecute Nixon for his crimes against the Republic, citing the trauma to the nation. His grand jury, after sitting for 30 months, wanted him to indict Nixon. According to one account, some jurors raised both hands when asked to vote on indictment. The possibility was foreclosed when Gerald Ford pardoned the former president.  US Person thinks to this day elevating Ford to the Oval office was the quid pro quo for Nixon's pardon; Ford was not re-elected primarily, many believe, for that pardon. Fortunately for the nation we got JC-- Jimmy Carter.

Trumpillini, the cunning criminal he is, does not have a pardon, but he is in a position to negotiate one if a Repugnant wins the White House in 2024 by having skin in the game. Let's not make the same mistake again. Either our civil rhetoric--no person is above the law--means something, or it does NOT, and we should all go home and let the sociopaths take control entirely.  Seven months and counting.

Wackydoodle sez:  "Here's the play, Jerry...."

                                                

Another Case of Profit Before Safety

Update:  NTSB has released its preliminary report on the disastrous trail derailment in a small Ohio town. The Board concluded that a overheated wheel bearing in the 23rd car contributed to the accident.  Detectors registered the overheating, at one point 253 degrees above normal.  The crew applied the brakes after an alarm sounded, but the train was unable to stop before derailing.  Overheating ignited a car containing plastic pellets. According to the investigators there is no evidence the train was exceeding the 50mph speed limit.  First responders detonated five tank cars containing vinyl chloride that contaminated the town and surroundings in order to avoid a BLEVE. 

Herr Trumpillini visited Palestine last week, where he handed out bottles of water branded with his name. Voters there supported the huckster in the 2020 election that was not stolen by Joe Biden.  But It was his government that delayed implementation of a regulation requiring more modern brakes on freight trains.    EPA has taken over the clean up and remediation and said it would Norfolk Southern responsible for the cost.

{16.02.2023}The train derailment in Palestine, OH has been in the news cycle for weeks since it occurred on February 3rd.  Ten of the car were tankers caring hazardous chemicals.  Some leaked or burned during the accident while three were blown up three days later to prevent a BLEVE   BLEVE stands for "boiling liquid evaporative vapors explosion.  A BLEVE is frightening as well as destructive--think of a giant napalm bomb exploding before your eyes.  Among the toxic chemicals released into the atmosphere were butyl acrylate and vinyl chloride.  Residents of East Palestine were evacuated but allowed to return after the EPA said it was safe to do so two days later.  Residents have reported burning eyes, sore throats and headaches. About 3500 fish died in nearby creeks after the incident.  Many residents are still confused about whether their water and air are actually safe.  Pets and livestock are experiencing illnesses, owners say are related to the released toxins. The governor has recommended residents drink bottled water.

credit: AP

A contentious town meeting took place on Wednesday in which the train's operator, Norfolk Southern, failed to make an appearance. "They have something to hide. You don't back out of questions if you know how to answer them," East Palestine resident Jaime Cozza told reporters. "It was like a bomb went through our town." NFS cited safety concerns when they announced company representatives would not be attending just hours before the meeting. Some residents are banding together to hire their own experts and attorney to examine water and air safety.

The Leverreports that a lack of safety equipment contributed to the accident. The NTSB announced at a press conference a failed rail car axle caused the accident, but has not yet released its findings. The design of the brakes on the derailedment date from 1868, which operate on air pressure moving through the train, consequently it takes time for the brakes to actuate in the rear. The train was not quipped with modern pneumatic brakes that are fully electric, nor was the train regulated as a "high-hazard flammable train". Records show the company lobbied against more stringent regulation with the result that many trains carrying toxic chemicals were exempted from the high hazard category. The same industry-friendly result occurred with regard to electrically controlled pneumatic brakes, which the railroad once touted at a Congressional hearing as a technological development that would significantly reduce stopping distance. When the federal government moved to make the new brakes mandatory, the industry rebelled. Their' lobby group was successful in getting the Trump regime to rescind the new brake requirement, and it has not been reinstated by the Biden administration.  ECP brakes are still required on high-hazard trains, which are limited mostly to those pulling petroleum tanks. A spokesperson for the National Transportation Safety Board has confirmed that the wreck was not equipped with ECP brakes. A former member of the Federal Railroad Administration told The Lever ECP brakes would have reduced the severity of the Palestine derailment. The industry donated $6 million to GOP political campaigns in 2017. Apparently it was money well spent*, and a lot less expensive than buying new brakes.

*Norfolk Southern authorized a ten billion dollar stock buy-back that benefits stockholders, including company executives, while neglecting rail repairs and denying workers paid sick days.  It made $4.7 billion in operating profits in 2022.  In 2005 another NFS train derailed in Graniteville, South Carolina releasing a cloud of chlorine gas and diesel fuel.  The town was evacuated. Crops were damaged, wildlife killed, and nine people died.  The company spent $26 million in remediation after being taken to court for violating the Clean Water Act.

COTW: Antarctic. Sea Ice at New Low

This chart shows the level of Antarctic sea ice over the years since the level was measured by satellite since the 1970's:

The last three years of record melt are shown.  Summer has some way to go this year, so the melt can be expected to reduce the record low coverage of 1.91sq km further. That is enough ice to cover Great Britain and Ireland. Only the Weddell Sea remains ice-covered.  Data sources going back to 1900 indicate that Antarctic sea ice has shown great variability in recent years with record maximums in winter and record minimums in summer.  The trend was in decline in the early the last century, but started to increase later, contrary to computer models showing a gradual decline in sea ice.  The annual freeze-thaw cycle in Antartica is hugely important to the ocean conveyor the mass movement of water which regulates global climate. 

Observers think that record sea ice melting is influenced by record temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula shown in this chart:

Nature is Silent Victim of War

For the first time in history, people in Ukraine are attempting to systematically estimate the damage done to the environment by Russia's War on Ukraine.  Russia's crimes against nature will be included in Ukraine's compensation claim against Russia for its aggression, which stands now at $50bn.  The environment ministry has set up a hotline for citizens to report instances of "ecocide".  The report tally is now 2,303 with weekly updates.

These reports show that about one-third of the Ukraine's surface is potentially dangerous, strewn with ordinance, exploded or unexploded, toxic chemicals, and 230,000 tons of scrap metal--the remains of Russian armour and other equipment. Up to 40% of arable land is not available for cultivation.  Sixteen wetlands are threatened with destruction.  Six hundred species of animals and 880 species of plants are in danger of extinction.  Vast forest fires have been sparked by explosions, particularly in Luhansk Oblast where 17,000 hectares have been burnt.  Over 2m forested hectares have been destroyed. Attacks on industrial centers have released benzopyrene; nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide into the atmosphere.  Russian troops dug trenches in the soil of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, apparently obliviously of the radiation absorbed by the soil.

Perhaps these figures need to be tempered by the potential for propaganda, but clearly counting the biodiversity cost of war is a new development.  During WWII entire cities were flattened by conventional ordinance, and eventually by nuclear weapons.  Russia is not the first nation to employ area bombardment as a means of breaking the enemy's will to fight.  In South Vietnam entire landscapes were subjected to intense chemical warfare to deny the enemy sanctuary beneath the canopy.  The tactic did not work, and the immense biological damage when unaccounted.  More recently the burning of oil wells in the Gulf War was disparaged, but no attempt was made to calculate the costs to Nature.

Legal scholars hope Ukraine can push the development of ecocide as a crime against Nature under international law akin to recognized crimes against humanity.  Collecting data, often by volunteers who risk going near the fighting,  is the first step to quantifying the damage done.  President Zelenskiy is  proposing that protecting of the environment as a key element in his country's proposals for peace.  The prosecutor general of Ukraine is already processing eleven cases under Section 441 of the Ukrainian criminal code; it is one of several former Soviet bloc nations that have nature crimes in their codes.

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, credit: Reuters

It is axiomatic that Nature is resilient, but even Nature can be pushed too far out of balance as man is finding out to his distress. Ukraine will need help with restoration after the conflict ends.  That restoration must include helping Nature reclaim its former health and diversity. In some cases restoration will mean improving environmental conditions that existed before the war, such as reducing industrial pollution or not re-building dams.  In the end these efforts will help the people of Ukraine return to a sense of normaility.

Boundary Waters Safe for Twenty Years

Earthjustice, the environmental litigation group, announced a victory in the pristine Boundary Waters Wilderness Area of Northern Minnesota.  After decades of activism, the Biden administration reversed  Trump's revival of two sulfide mineral leases in the Wilderness that could have had catastrophic impacts on the water quality and wildlife habitat.  Sulfide mining is particular pernicious since the mineral when brought to the surface reacts with the atmosphere to produce sulfuric acid and heavy metal leachates.  These sources of toxic pollution posed a threat to the recreation based economy of Ely, MN and the wild rice farming by tribes in the area.  The Forest Service said in a 2016 memo to the Bureau of Land Management that the risk posed by the reinstated leases to the only protected sub-boreal forest in the lower 48 was "unacceptable".  The Boundary Waters are noted for their purity. Some 2000 pristine lakes dot the region along the Canadian border providing abundant water recreation opportunities.  It is the home of the endangered gray wolf, Canadian lynx and long-eared bat.

A Chilean company, Twin Metals wanted to establish a mining complex near Ely to exploit copper-nickle sufide deposits.  Minnesota has a long history of mining, having supplied most of the iron ore need to fight WWII.  Through a combination of public lobbying and timely litigation, including suits brought by Earthjustice, conservation advocates convinced the Biden administration to cancel the mining leases in 2022 and in 2023 it declared a twenty year ban on new mining in 200,000+ acres of the Superior National Forest.  The company plans to appeal the cancellation of its leases.  After a long fight, this is a significant win for Nature.

Weekend Music: More Than a Feeling

While US Person was busy listening to CCR and Dobbie Brothers, he short-changed the excellence of Boston.  Recently viewing the film, "Men Who Stare at Goats" a humorous, new-age satire of the post-Vietnam Army starring three good actors, Clooney, Spacey and Bridges, Boston was mentioned as the band one of the lead characters in the "New Earth Army" used for inspiration while "remote viewing". Want to know more?--see the movie. 

Boston's anthem, "More than a Feeling" played during the credits inspiring him to drag out his air guitar and play along (the distorted chord-only chorus accompanied by hand claps kicks butt). Tom Scholtz (bass) wrote the song and engineered the album using some unusual techniques like fade-in, peaked mid-range frequencies, pick scrapes, and guitar harmonics. Brad Delp's powerful vocals are out of this world. The band's 1976 debut album, Boston, ranks as one of the best-selling debut albums in US history, selling 17 million copies.  So, US Person posts More than a Feeling here for your long weekend enjoyment:

If you want to dive into the complex musical structure of this amazing song that makes it so memorable view this video by musician Rick Beato who analyses the tune, one of the classics of rock. https://youtu.be/ynFNt4tgBJ0

TWIT: Georgia Grand Jury Nothing Burger

US Person has looked at the released portions of the special grand jury report and he is underwhelmed. It seems the authorities are focused on running their investigations into the wire of the 2024 election.  As readers probably know by now, the Department of Justice has a policy of not prosecuting during an election cycle.  Fulton County DA Fanni Willis convinced the judge not to release any portion of the grand jury's report that might prejudice a criminal defendant's right to due process.  She told the judge indictments are "imminent" over a month ago.  

The released portions are mostly boilerplate, and no names of possible defendants are revealed.  In fact the only public conclusions the grand jury reached were that the election of 2020 was fair, and that Trump's theories of fraud are not supported by facts. Thank you, we knew that already. It also states that a majority thinks several witnesses lied during their testimony.  If the grand jury identified specific crimes and the identity of persons committing them, that information is in the hands of the Fulton County District Attorney.  The jury set out violations of law it found in a sealed portion of its report saying “We set forth for the Court our recommendations on indictments and relevant statutes, including their votes by the Grand Jurors. This includes the votes respective to each topic, indicated in a ‘Yea/Nay/Abstain’ format throughout.”and the jurors, "acknowledge the discretion of the District Attorney to seek indictments where she finds sufficient cause." It is her move now. Although a state prosecution for election fraud of the Orche Menace would not be barred by DOJ's internal policies, it would be highly unlikely that a prosecution of a political figure would take place in the later stages (say after a primary) of a presidential election, despite the smoking gun of his phone call to Georgia's Secretary of State demanding 11,000 more votes for him be "found". In the bizarro world of his own, the Orche Menace is claiming exoneration because his name was not mentioned in the released portions of the report. The guy is really out there.

On another front against Trump, the Special Counsel investigating him for the attempted coup has subpoenaed Mark Meadows, former chief of staff and a key figure in the conspiracy. Meadows avoided appearing before the January 6th Committee by feigning cooperation and ignoring a congressional subpeona. He released some of his digital communications, which apparently proved useful, but it was a carefully calculated move on his part. His latest subpoena is both a good and bad thing. Getting his testimony under oath is important to proving Individual One's participation in the historic conspiracy and his criminal intent to subvert the election process by fraudulent means. But under another obscure DOJ rule, a witness before a grand jury cannot be a target of the investigation. This means Meadows will not be charged with a crime related to the coup attempt, if he complies with process. Of course, he is still vulnerable to perjury charges if he lies under oath.  According to CNN the Special Prosecutor is locked in eight secret court battles to enforce subpoenas or divulge evidence.  The difficulty of prosecuting elected officials and former elected officials with various types of privilege is apparent.  One of those cases involves Repugnant Scott Perry of Pennsylvania.  DOJ wants access to his cell phone records, which Perry claims are protected under the speech and debate clause of the Constitution.  What is becoming increasingly clear from all this is that members of Congress aided and abetted the insurection.

On the question of Trump's intent, the WaPo printed a story that says Herr Trumpillini went so far as to retain outside research consultants to examine whether any of the claims of fraud advanced by his campaign were supported by evidence. The consultants told Trump that there was no material evidence of fraud. This conclusion was in addition to the sixty-two civil cases in which there was no finding of significant election fraud. This mountain of evidence did not stop the sociopathic liar in office from continuing his efforts to overturn the election results. Willful ignorance of fact is not a legal defense.

As previously stated here the name of Trump's legal defense is delay. His sycophantic sidekick, Mike Pence, has announced he will fight the grand jury subpoena for his testimony. Apparently his attorneys agree that executive privilege has been undeniably waived by Pence, who published a memoire about his conversations with Herr Trumpilini on or about January 6th. Give them credit for innovation. They have concocted a novel, if ridiculous, argument that Pence, acting as president of the Senate on January 6th has immunity under the speech and debate clause of the Constitution. That clause only applies to members of Congress' speech in either house. Pence was not a member of Congress, but a member of the Executive Branch acting in a ceremonial capacity. The novel argument is only calculated to get Pence to the conservative Supreme Court. But even MAGA jurist Clarence Thomas could not swallow such a preposterous rationale, but it will take more time to process his constitutional claim. Senator Lindsey Graham from South Carolina already tried this gambit before the Georgia Special Grand Jury and lost in federal court. Eight months and counting.

credit: M. Ramirez
Wackydoodle sez: How' bout a John Gotti?

Deep Sea Mining Poses Threat to Cetaceans

Mining the deep seabed for valuable metallic minerals could begin soon.  The UN regulatory body, International Seabed Authority, is finalizing regulations to govern mining activity in international waters.  Supporters of seabed mining say that digging for minerals on the seabed is far less destructive than on land, and would help meet short supplies of minerals used in the transition to alternative energy sources.  However of concern to conservationists is the paucity of data concerning the effect of deep sea mining activity on cetaceans that transit mining locations and forage in the deep sea using sonar.

Seabed mining is noisy. Scientists think that frequencies that overlap with communications frequencies used by cetaceans could lead to behavior changes and interfere with their ability to locate food.  While some information has been collected for seabed dwelling fauna, that is not the case for mobile marine mammals like whales, dolphins and porpoises. 

One form of mining is the dredging of polymetalic nodules containing copper, cobalt, and titanium from the abyssal plains. All of these material are used in renewable energy technologies.  A Pacific island nation, Nauru sponsors a Canadian company involved in a proposal to begin mining within two years under a provision of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) that allows mining to take place under existing regulations.  Some member nations like New Zealand, France, Chile and Palau want to impose a moratorium on seabed mining as do companies like Renault, BMW and Samsung SDI out an abundance of caution since so little is known of environmental impacts and the potential for irreparable damage to ancient ecosystems that support life on the planet. [mining equipment painted green; photo credit, Greenpeace]

It is reasonable to assume that commercial mining operations would  be conducted 24/7, emitting a variety of frequencies that could disrupt normal behaviors of creatures that rely on sound in a region of the Earth's surface that previously had no human created noise.  There has been no independent, peer- reviewed of the effect of these mining related noise on cetations.  The Canadian company, TMC is required to submit to the ISA acoustic data it is collecting as part of its environmental impact statement when applying for an operating license.  Noise is not the only problem that could impact these animals.  Sediment plumes from seabed mining vehicles could increase water column turbidity and mobilize contaminates previously undisturbed by man. Man's environmental track record when opening new frontiers for exploitation has been disastrous.  There is no reason to think seabed mining will be any different.

COTW: The Solution to January 6th

The fact that a determined sociopath was able to come close to overthrowing the elected government of the United States should indicate a need to reform that part of the Constitution that addresses presidential elections. Undoubtably the problem lies in the antiquated mechanism of the Elctoral College. That institution has outlived its relevance, if it ever had any. The framers were determined to limit the power of big states to dominate Congress by imposing an upper house not elected on a population basis. Small states get the same representation as big states. It also adopted a henous voting compromise to placate slave holding states--the Electoral College. The College stands between voters in each state and the outcome of a presidential election. Previously, the College was justified on grounds that a largely rural nation may not be sufficiently informed or literate to make an informed choice. Obviously, in this age of instant communications and almost universal literacy that justification is no longer operative. In a democracy the majority decides. 

While Joe Biden won the Electoral College 306-232 and the popular vote 51-47, his actual margin of victory was extremely narrow, and is why an autocratic incumbent thought he had a reasonable chance of overturning the election results by fraudulently flipping the electoral slates from a few key states. Wisconsin, which allowed Biden to reach the only vote total that actually counts of 270 electoral votes, was won by just 0.6%. If Trump could have found a few more votes, he could have won re-election without winning the popular vote. This disturbing result is possible under the current system of indirect voting for president,  and has occurred before in the past. 

There are two ways to change this situtation for the better under Article Five of our Constitution: a vote of two-thirds of both houses of Congress or a Constitutional Convention called by two-thirds of the states. In our modern era of divided governemt such a call to amend the Constitution is highly unlikely. Nor would the proposed amendment to abolish the Electoral College receive ratification by three-fourths of the states or at a Convention. Fortunately, another way has been proposed to avoid this political deadlock. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement between states that have adopted the Compact to award their electorial votes to the winneer of the popular vote in their state provided enough states have signed to reach 270 electoral votes. Currently fifteen states and the District of Columbia have signed the agreement binding thier respective state legislatures. These states control 195 electoral votes, requiring another 75 votes to join. Here's the map:

After the results of the mid-term election, Democrates in Minnisota have taken control of the state legislature for the first time in eight years. They have moved the Compact to a floor vote soon. Adding Minnesota's 16 electoral votes bring the Compact going into effect within possibilty, as soon as 2028 (blue states on the map). Five states voted for it during the reign of Trump; the revelations brought about by the House Select Committee on January 6th and the possibility of the former President being criminally indicted may motivate more to join the effort to short-circuit the College without attempting an unfeasible amendment process.

Democrats came close to obtaining Virginia's consent together with Nevada's and Maine's. No Repugnant legislator will vote for the Compact since the current indirect system gives them a partisan edge, which is the very reason the Ochre Menace wanted to throw the 2020 election into the House of Representatives by crying "Fraud" on every public platform he could reach. Another blue wave in 2025 could put the Compact over the top. Pennsylvania could add its 19 votes by winning three more seats in the state Senate. Nevada could join by flipping only one seat to override the Governor's veto. Michigan, now under Democractic control, could vote for a popular presidential election by passing the Compact into law. Doing so would certainly eliminate the uncertainty that now overshawdows our national elections becuase of an archaic voting system born in slavery.

What Is Combined Arms Warfare?

Followers of Putin's War on Ukraine have read the term "combined arms" warfare is needed to defeat
Russia's army in the field. It is a warfare doctrine developed since Cambrai that relies on the synchronized use of multiple weapon systems to attack enemy positions. A video showing the doctrine in operation against an entrenched defense line of mines, armor and mechanized infantry is worth a thousand words. Note especially the use of close air support to eliminate deep, high-value targets, such as artillery batteries and ammo dumps, supporting the enemy's defensive line, similar to what Ukrainian forces may encounter if they attempt to sever the land bridge to the Crimean peninsula. It is only sixty miles from Donetsk to Mariupol, but that sixty miles is filled with Russian military assets. When Ukrainian forces stopped an armored assault at Vuhledar, they defeated another ill-planned, poorly executed maneuver by Russian forces. Video shows BMPs driving over RAAM (Remote Anti-Armor Mines) sown via 155mm artillery shells. Combined arms doctrine aims to prevent such failures.

Warning: A lot of military jargon is used in this video, but the depiction of various assets used in the phased, synchronized brigade assault gives the viewer an idea of the scope of this complex maneuver. The Ukrainians are smart and resourceful fighters, but you cannot learn the details of this mechanized war dance overnight.

TWIT: Witness to History

credit: Tom Tomorrow
Wackydoodle sez:  He's better than Al Capone!

Finally, the Special Counsel investigating the historic insurrection of January 6th, has subpoenaed former VP Mike Pence, something the January 6th Committee of the House did not do. Pence participated in two critical phone calls with Trumpillini in which the would-be dictator attempted to coerce him into rejecting the Electoral College votes from swing states without a legal basis for doing so. His furious boss called him "weak" and a "wimp" during the calls in the evening of January 5th and the morning of January 6th, prior to the ceremonial counting in a congressional joint session.

Having failed to convince a normally pliable Pence he had the power to overturn the election, Trump was reduced to relying on the mob he incited to march on the Capitol to delay the peaceful transfer of power. While the mob was at the Capitol, Trump tweeted, “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution.” That tweet appeared to motivate the insurrectionists storming the building. 

Pence's testimony will put first-hand evidence of Trumpillini's criminal intent on record under oath. Versions of his conversations appear in Bob Woodward's book, Peril, and in Pence's own memoire. One of the alleged reasons for the House Select Committee not subpoenaing Pence earlier, was that it did not want to become embroiled in protracted litigation over executive privilege. Pence refused to appear without a subpoena.  That litigation is still a distinct possibility with the federal grand jury. However, a grand jury's subpoena in a criminal investigation carries more weight under the law, and some legal experts think privilege is a loosing argument since the conversations involved the commission of a crime by a former president, not official government business, and Pence has publicly revealed the communications' content. 

Prosecutors appear to be focusing on the scheme to replace electors awarded to Biden with electors fraudulently pledged to Trump. Subpoenas have been issued to state election officials demanding evidence of communications with Trump or his campaign aides. DOJ successfully secured answers from top Pence advisers Greg Jacob and Marc Short in significant court victories that will make it more likely the criminal investigation reaches further into Trump’s inner sanctum where omertà still reigns.

 credit: D. Chappette

Australia Blocks Coal Mine Near Great Barrier Reef

Australia exports an enormous amount of coal, so it is no small matter for Canberra to block a proposed open pit coal mine only six miles from the Great Barrier Reef.  The reef is under stress from warming ocean temperatures causing coral bleaching.  It has suffered four mass bleaching events in the last six years. Allowing the pit to go forward would pose an additional burden of pollution. As one of the world's largest exporters of coal, Australia has pledged to cut carbon emissions by 43% from 2005 levels. The country's new center-left government has promised to shift the previous Conservative government's pro-mining policies. Australia'S Green Party has been urging the Labour government to block all new coal and gas projects in order to meet the country's pledged climate goals. Another 26 coal mines are planned. [photo courtesy: GBR Marine Reef Park Authority]

Environment minister Tanya Plibersek, said that the mine would pollute groundwater and freshwater creeks that run into the reef and seagrass meadows that feed dugongs and provide habitat for breeding fish. She is the first minister to use powers to block projects under Australia's 22 year-old Environmental and Biodiversity Conservation Act. The Central Queensland Coal project would have consisted of two open pit mines yielding 10 million metric tons of coal a year for twenty years or more.  Conservationists hailed the decision.Australians expressed their opposition to the project from the outset. The federal government received 9,000 submissions in ten business days, the majority of which were against the project.

F-16s or Mig 29s for Ukraine?

More:  Zelenskyy seeks weaponry in surprise trips to London, Paris   Greeted with cheers of "Slava Ukraini" in the UK parliament, Ukraine's president made his nation's pitch for more weaponry, including fighter jets, in London and Paris ahead of a defense ministers' meeting in Brussels. He told his British audience that Air Force pilots are 'king' in Ukraine.

[06.02.2023} Mig-29s.  By far the more suitable weapons system for the Ukraine conflict. Why you ask?  Several reasons are apparent.  The Ukraine Air Force already operates this system, so a minimal amount of training would be necessary, and spare parts are available, if in short supply.  The Mig jet is built to operate from less than ideal airfields.  Like a lot of western equipment the F-16 is complex and to be really effective it must operate as part of a network of compatible command and control, air defense, and electronic warfare equipment.  That infrastructure is absent in Ukraine.  Moreover, stocks of Migs are readily available nearby.  Poland operates a fleet of the Soviet-era jets and F-16s that it wants to replace with more advanced F-22s and F-35s.  That country offered to send its Migs to Ukraine in March last year, if the United States replaced them F-16s.  The Pentagon shot that offer down. 

What the Ukrainians need is replacement aircraft, not a new model that poses logistical and training difficulties.  Training a pilot to operate a Fighting Falcon in combat could take a year.   They have used their Air Force in a restricted manner in order to keep losses at a sustainable level.  Given the plethora of surface to air missiles in the conflict, the Air Force role has been marginalized.  With replacements, Ukraine can afford to take greater operational risks.  Ukraine is again asking for fighter jets, presumably to use them for fending off the Russian spring offensive, and launching one of its own towards the Sea of Azov. To be successful in an armored push, some air superiority is needed.  Now that NATO has decided to supply offensive weaponry in the form of 300+ more modern tanks, it should reconsider allowing the transfer of a familiar and sustainable aircraft from Poland or elsewhere.  Slovakia recently retired its fleet of upgraded, NATO-compatible Fulcrum fighter-bombers. [photo] Designed in the 70's to fight against the F-16, this aircraft is a capable weapons system suited to the Ukrainian battle space.

Sending the longer range GLSDB (90+ miles) cruise missile system is a useful development since it will allow Ukraine's artillery units to reach logistical targets on its recognized borders with Russia.  A full suite of western weapons should make the difference on the battlefield, but time is running and a prolonged conflict is in Russia's favor.  How Ukraine intends to retake the Crimea without a navy is intriguing.

Biden Drills Baby, Drills

Biden's administration just approved the largest oil drilling project on federal land in Alaska's North Slope.  The gullible among you may recall they he came into office promising to end new drilling on federal land. He said on campaign in New Hampshire, "And by the way, no more drilling on federal lands, period. Period, period, period.”  Conoco-Phillips won approval from the BLM for its Willow Project that covers hundreds of acres of the National Petroleum Reserve, which is pristine habitat for geese and caribou. The project is estimated to generate 9.2 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year.  The Reserve represents one of the surest deposits of oil in the nation, that could produce 576-614 million barrels over 30 years, or about enough to satisfy 30 days of consumption.

The Bureau did identify a "preferred alternative" in its final supplemental environmental assessment (SEIS)-- a 550 acre parcel that would avoid caribou migration routes and yellow-billed loon nesting sites. Millions of migrating birds inhabit nearby Teshekpuk Lake [map] Biden has thirty days to make a final decision to allow the project to go forward.  Conoco is in the cat-bird seat in this leasing process, since it already owns two operating well sites in the same area.  The company said in a news release that it could work with the preferred SEIS "E" option with three core drill sites identified in the report, but warned it would abandon the project as uneconomic if the sites are reduced to two.  Apparently the extra 'periods' in his campaign statement are forgotten.  

Conservationists are not satisfied that the administration has worked hard enough against the Willow Project.  Earthjustice, the environmental litigation group, says SEIS option E only reduces the carbon emissions by 3-9% from Conoco's original proposal.  The administration has also promised to cut nationwide emissions in half from 2005 levels by 2030, but rejected criticisms of its support for Willow saying the President has done more for climate change than any other president, while meeting the nation's energy needs.  Alaska's two senators also support drilling the Reserve, along with some members of the local tribes.  The administration has approved more than 6,000 federal gas and oil permits, more than the Trump administration in its first two years.

TWIT: The Outlaw Trump

Pundits are beginning to realize what US Person has known all along: Trump is the head of a corrupt organization, and has been so for four decades.  Ever since he began dealing with the Mafia in New York to get his tower built when the mob had shut down concrete trucks in the city; to the casinos in Atlantic City where the Russian mob hung out while he washed their millions; to his repeated tax evasion and financial fraud; to the culmination of his criminal activity, the attempted take down of the US government through a multi-spoke conspiracy, Trumpillini has evaded and subverted the laws of the land.  Greg Barack noted in his Salon article on the subject, that he, "is not an outlaw of negligence, incompetence or ignorance....Trump knows the subtle difference between what is lawfully right and lawfully wrong.... he is an expert on criminal intent."

As the criminal investigations involving him and his businesses drag on, the picture of Trumpillini's RICO is coming into focus.  The acronym stands for Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organization.  An enterprise determined to be a RICO can be prosecuted, dismantled, and its officers jailed.  Trumpillini's penchant for white collar crime is lately seen in DOJ's investigation of his PAC, Save America, the vehicle he uses for raising funds by propagating the myth of a stolen election since 2020.  Another Washington, DC grand jury has issued subpoenas to several mid-level aides involved.  Since its inception Save Amenrica has raised $135 million including $30 million from his campaign funds.   Combining all of these activities with the January 6th Insurrection and the Mar-a-Lago Papers case into one giant prosecution is probably too complex and unwieldy.  But they are related because they have as their hub one corrupt individual. 

Generally, a RICO prosecution involves a pattern of criminal conduct through an enterprise over a period of time for financial gain.  That definition fits what Trumpillini has been engaged in for years like a glove. What is truly ironic is that his main cappo, Rudy Giuliani, used the federal RICO statute to bring down the New York mob in the 80s.  Fanni Willis, the Fulton County DA investigating Trumpillini for his election fraud in Georgia, used a state version of the statute to prosecute gangsters in Atlanta.  Under the Georgia statute, making or attempting to make a false statement to any state department or agency is defined as "racketeering".   That certainly describes what Trumpillini tried to do when he told Georgia election officials that the election was fraudulent.  What makes RICO laws powerful, is that the head of a corrupt organization does not have to directly commit illegal acts to be found guilty.  He merely has to participate in the racketeering activity by having others in the organization do it for him. Certainly Giuliani, when he promoted baseless claims of election fraud in Georgia and elsewhere, was doing so at the behest of his Padrino.  The lesson here: even Presidents can be criminals. 

credit: G. Le Lievre
BC Idonwanna sez: No way out.

The Final End of the Pebble Mine?

Environmentalists have been fighting the Pebble Mine project near Bristol Bay, Alaska for nearly two decades.  They forced major mining companies to give up on the project, but a successor in interest has been doggedly pursuing the project through administration on both sides of the political divide.  The EPA issued a final determination this week under the Clean Water Act Section 404(c).  The agency determined that dumping mine wastes into the Bristol Bay watershed would have adverse impacts on the pristine salmon habitat of the watershed [see map]  The watershed contains a salmon spawning ground that supports a fishing industry worth $2 billion and employs 15,000 local people. Bristol Bay produces nearly half of the world's Sockeye salmon.

Without required permits, Northern Dynasty Minerals, a Canadian firm, is severely restricted to where they can dump thousands of tons of mine waste from the proposed open pit copper and gold mine. The compay is also appealing the denial by the Army Corp of Engineers in 2020 of its construction permits.  All of this opposition is making the project increasingly uneconomic despite the size of the mineral deposit

In addition to the latest regulatory victory, native peoples formed a corporation that granted conservation easements to more than 44,000 acres to protect them from future mine development in perpetuity.  EPA has used its Clean Water Act authority to block a project only three times in thirty years.  So despite the company's and Alaska's threat to sue the EPA over its final determination, the suit is unlikely to succeed.  Conservationists and tribes are breathing easier, but the zombie mine has come back before.  The minerals beneath the salmon are just too valuable to ignore.

Dodo Redux

A bioscience startup is making the news again with its announcement that it would attempt to resurrect the dodo bird using genetic sequencing. Colossal Biosciences was founded in 2021 by Ben Lamm, tech entrepreneur and George Church, a geneticist at Harvard University.  The company first announced it would bring back the wholly mammoth and then a year later the thylacine or Tasmanian tiger.  With new funding a avian genomics group was formed. [credit: D. Eskridge]

The dodo is the icon of species extinction caused by man.  It went extinct on Mauritius island in the Indian Ocean in the mid 17th century.  The large, flightless bird was literally hunted to eradication by humans for food.  It was unafraid of man, having existed for millennia without him, giving rise to the undeserved reputation for stupidity, and the expression "deader than a dodo".  Its survival was hampered by a low reproductive rate, typically laying just one egg on the ground where introduced rats or monkeys could easily eat it.

A tiny piece of dodo mitochondrial DNA was extracted by paleobiologist Beth Shapiro and her team at UC Santa Cruz in 2002.  Analysis showed the dodo's closet living relative to be the Nicobar pigeon. [photo below] By 2022 the entire dodo genome was sequenced.  This accomplishment allowed geneticists to ponder whether the extinct bird could be brought back to life.  This almost magical feat might be accomplished using dodo genetic material being implanted into an egg of a closely related species, like the Nicobar pigeon. [photo below] While theoretically possible, it is technically difficult and there is no guarantee that a chimera would survive birth and rearing.  Dolly the sheep is the famous first example of a successful cloning in mammals.  But the same cloning pathway does not exist in avian species.  Shapiro says there is no access to avian eggs at the same stage of development as mammal egg cells.  So, Colossal is working on extracting primordial germ cells from birds that would be genetically engineered to create a dodo-sized pigeon that could successfully hatch a chimera.  One advantage in working with egg-laying species is that all of the early development takes place inside an egg fairly rapidly compared to a woolly mammoth fetus developing in a surrogate womb for nearly two years.

Nicobar pigeon

Creating a living creature is only the beginning of the problem.  There are no adult dodos around to teach the new dodo how to behave like, well, a dodo.  To compound the problem the environment is completely changed from what existed 300 years ago.  Dodos lived in a pristine forest on an isolated Indian Ocean island with no large predators around.  According to mariner accounts, there were thousands of them.  Bringing  an isolated, extinct bird into a modern world has significant ethical considerations.  A habitat where re-created dodos could survive would have to be found, or more likely created.  Shapiro admits to being a fan of the dodo; she even has a dodo tattoo. Nevertheless, she says that resurrecting extinct species is not a solution to the extinction crisis.  She stated the problem succinctly, "Extinction is forever."

COTW: The Dirty Secret of the National Debt

It is a fact that the wealthy in the United States have become rentiers rather than taxpayers.  Over the last fifty years the wealthy have moved from 90% tax rates under Eisenhower to owning interest on the national debt. One of the largest contributors to the national debt, currently at $31.4 trillion, is the reduction in tax revenue collected from corporations and the wealthy. Trump's tax cuts reduced the effective rate of taxation on the rich to below that paid by the middle class to 23%.  Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary, says that under Trump the federal budget deficit increased by $113 billion, while corporate tax receipts decreased by $90 billion, accounting for 80% of the deficit,  

Of course--unless you live in the MAGAverse--the government has to pay interest on that debt, which has hit a record $475 billion. (fiscal 2022)  Most of that interest is paid to wealthy investors in US debt instruments via hedge funds, pension funds, banks, insurance companies and personal estates.  So the wealthy are getting a return on their invested money from the rest of us paying taxes to get services we all need. Such a deal! LOOK, at this chart:

Congressional figures show the percent spent on interest alone will increase to 3.3% of GDP by 2032 and to 7.2% by 2052.  Despite what the crazies on the right are telling you, its not government spending that is the problem, its the lack of taxation on the rich who are getting richer from our tax payments!  The solution is simple: make the rich and their corporations pay more taxes.   Kevin McCarthy, your fiscal hypocrisy knows no bounds.