Wednesday, February 08, 2023

F-16s or Mig 29s for Ukraine?

More:  Zelenskyy seeks weaponry in surprise trips to London, Paris   Greeted with cheers of "Slava Ukraini" in the UK parliament, Ukraine's president made his nation's pitch for more weaponry, including fighter jets, in London and Paris ahead of a defense ministers' meeting in Brussels. He told his British audience that Air Force pilots are 'king' in Ukraine.

[06.02.2023} Mig-29s.  By far the more suitable weapons system for the Ukraine conflict. Why you ask?  Several reasons are apparent.  The Ukraine Air Force already operates this system, so a minimal amount of training would be necessary, and spare parts are available, if in short supply.  The Mig jet is built to operate from less than ideal airfields.  Like a lot of western equipment the F-16 is complex and to be really effective it must operate as part of a network of compatible command and control, air defense, and electronic warfare equipment.  That infrastructure is absent in Ukraine.  Moreover, stocks of Migs are readily available nearby.  Poland operates a fleet of the Soviet-era jets and F-16s that it wants to replace with more advanced F-22s and F-35s.  That country offered to send its Migs to Ukraine in March last year, if the United States replaced them F-16s.  The Pentagon shot that offer down. 

What the Ukrainians need is replacement aircraft, not a new model that poses logistical and training difficulties.  Training a pilot to operate a Fighting Falcon in combat could take a year.   They have used their Air Force in a restricted manner in order to keep losses at a sustainable level.  Given the plethora of surface to air missiles in the conflict, the Air Force role has been marginalized.  With replacements, Ukraine can afford to take greater operational risks.  Ukraine is again asking for fighter jets, presumably to use them for fending off the Russian spring offensive, and launching one of its own towards the Sea of Azov. To be successful in an armored push, some air superiority is needed.  Now that NATO has decided to supply offensive weaponry in the form of 300+ more modern tanks, it should reconsider allowing the transfer of a familiar and sustainable aircraft from Poland or elsewhere.  Slovakia recently retired its fleet of upgraded, NATO-compatible Fulcrum fighter-bombers. [photo] Designed in the 70's to fight against the F-16, this aircraft is a capable weapons system suited to the Ukrainian battle space.

Sending the longer range GLSDB (90+ miles) cruise missile system is a useful development since it will allow Ukraine's artillery units to reach logistical targets on its recognized borders with Russia.  A full suite of western weapons should make the difference on the battlefield, but time is running and a prolonged conflict is in Russia's favor.  How Ukraine intends to retake the Crimea without a navy is intriguing.