Tuesday, February 14, 2023

COTW: The Solution to January 6th

The fact that a determined sociopath was able to come close to overthrowing the elected government of the United States should indicate a need to reform that part of the Constitution that addresses presidential elections. Undoubtably the problem lies in the antiquated mechanism of the Elctoral College. That institution has outlived its relevance, if it ever had any. The framers were determined to limit the power of big states to dominate Congress by imposing an upper house not elected on a population basis. Small states get the same representation as big states. It also adopted a henous voting compromise to placate slave holding states--the Electoral College. The College stands between voters in each state and the outcome of a presidential election. Previously, the College was justified on grounds that a largely rural nation may not be sufficiently informed or literate to make an informed choice. Obviously, in this age of instant communications and almost universal literacy that justification is no longer operative. In a democracy the majority decides. 

While Joe Biden won the Electoral College 306-232 and the popular vote 51-47, his actual margin of victory was extremely narrow, and is why an autocratic incumbent thought he had a reasonable chance of overturning the election results by fraudulently flipping the electoral slates from a few key states. Wisconsin, which allowed Biden to reach the only vote total that actually counts of 270 electoral votes, was won by just 0.6%. If Trump could have found a few more votes, he could have won re-election without winning the popular vote. This disturbing result is possible under the current system of indirect voting for president,  and has occurred before in the past. 

There are two ways to change this situtation for the better under Article Five of our Constitution: a vote of two-thirds of both houses of Congress or a Constitutional Convention called by two-thirds of the states. In our modern era of divided governemt such a call to amend the Constitution is highly unlikely. Nor would the proposed amendment to abolish the Electoral College receive ratification by three-fourths of the states or at a Convention. Fortunately, another way has been proposed to avoid this political deadlock. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement between states that have adopted the Compact to award their electorial votes to the winneer of the popular vote in their state provided enough states have signed to reach 270 electoral votes. Currently fifteen states and the District of Columbia have signed the agreement binding thier respective state legislatures. These states control 195 electoral votes, requiring another 75 votes to join. Here's the map:
After the results of the mid-term election, Democrates in Minnisota have taken control of the state legislature for the first time in eight years. They have moved the Compact to a floor vote soon. Adding Minnesota's 16 electoral votes bring the Compact going into effect within possibilty, as soon as 2028 (blue states on the map). Five states voted for it during the reign of Trump; the revelations brought about by the House Select Committee on January 6th and the possibility of the former President being criminally indicted may motivate more to join the effort to short-circuit the College without attempting an unfeasible amendment process.

Democrats came close to obtaining Virginia's consent together with Nevada's and Maine's. No Repugnant legislator will vote for the Compact since the current indirect system gives them a partisan edge, which is the very reason the Ochre Menace wanted to throw the 2020 election into the House of Representatives by crying "Fraud" on every public platform he could reach. Another blue wave in 2025 could put the Compact over the top. Pennsylvania could add its 19 votes by winning three more seats in the state Senate. Nevada could join by flipping only one seat to override the Governor's veto. Michigan, now under Democractic control, could vote for a popular presidential election by passing the Compact into law. Doing so would certainly eliminate the uncertainty that now overshawdows our national elections becuase of an archaic voting system born in slavery.