US Person previously identified a weak point of Russian defenses south of Staromaiorske, and suggested that Mariupol could be a strategic goal of the counteroffensive. {23.01.2023} Ukraine has been pouring reinforcements into the advance of two marine brigades and the 4th Tank Brigade for the past month. Staromaiorskie was officially recaptured on July 27th, apparently at great cost in casualties and equipment. SlavaUkraini! US Person began to get excited as the advanced continued down the river valley of the tiny Mokri Yalli towards the village of Urozhaine on the opposite bank. Urozhanie was recaptured this week in intense fighting. Ukraine's Air Force dropped JDAMS on Russian positions in the village. Heroyam Slava! The Ukrainians fought off repeated counterattacks after taking it. However, Russians were caught in an indefensible salient forcing them to retreat south, but not after suffering significant casualties. Reports are those fleeing on foot out of the village were cut to pieces by cluster munitions.
The apparent goal is the town of Staromylvinka. It is important because just south of the town is the only Russian fortified defense line in the area. Compare this situation to the Tokmak axis where Ukrainian forces recently recaptured Robotyne.
[map] A breakthrough at Staromylvinka will be very significant; Ukrainian forces will then be behind vulnerable static fortifications. Undoubtably there will be mine fields ahead, but in less density than before. It is unlikely Russians have the had the time or manpower to lay dense fields in front of a rapid Ukrainian advance--emphasis on rapid. Staromylvinka is only 65 miles down the T0518 and/or H20 highways to Mariupol. It is half that to the railway running south along the ridge of high ground, which is the main Russian supply line. If Ukraine's forces reach the port city before General Mud hinders mechanized operations, it will be game over for the Ruskies in Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukraine can then concentrate on air and ground operations against Crimea.
A successful diversionary operation is taking place on the east bank of the Dnipro where special forces have consolidated and expanded two beachheads, one at Kozahi Laheri and one before Oleshky. Although the operation is relatively small (< batllion), they are significant enough to fix Russian forces in the area and require reinforcements. Ukrainian forces are holding despite intense artilery bombardment. Ukraine enjoys a 3:1 kill ratio in artillery strikes thanks to western precision ordinance and reconnaissance drones, while Russia is increasingly relying on 70-50 year old towed pieces.
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| Ukraine needs more of these antiaircraft, MIM-23 HAWKS |
