Zelensky's Dream Come True

 Zelensky with Dutch Royal Air Force command

He finally got his wish--F-16s.  The US announced it would approve transfer of its tech by Denmark and Netherlands.  Both NATO countries are replacing their F-16 fleets with the F-35. Netherlands has 42 jets and Denmark 19 at their disposal.  Norway has 57 of the older aircraft, but there is no commitment from it on transferring some of them to Ukraine. The US has about a thousand F-16s still on active duty.  Has Zelensky stopped to think what it will take to effectively deploy these complex fighter-bombers in actual combat?  US Person has his doubts.  

So far only 8 Ukrainian pilots have completed their basic instruction with the aircraft. These will be needed on the ground for training other pilots who mostly do not speak English or French.  But pilots are only the tip of the long logistics tail.  If US deployments are any guide, fifty highly trained personnel are needed to service each jet.  These are usually NCOs with decades of experience. Ukraine does not have any of these. The airframes are vintage from the 70's, so maintenance will be a key requirement. Will it rely on private contractors?  It probably will have to since the current US administration has made "boots on the ground" out of bounds.

F-16s will be honey to the bear.   To protect them on the ground the fighters will have to be dispersed, which will require more logistical personnel. US Person read somewhere that F-16s require longer runways than those needed by MiG-29s. So that means additional time, expense and personnel to upgrade infrastructure. An F-16 costs $27,000 an hour to operate. At that rate Ukraine's defense budget will be strained to cover more essential items like shells, bullets and jet fuel for their Abrams tanks, not to mention expensive ordinance for the aircraft. A US combat brigade cost $67,000 a mile to operate when fuel was cheaper.  Hard choices will have to be made by Ukraine if their fleet of coveted F-16s are not to become display models. War is not only hell, but hellishly expensive.

The fourth generation fighter jet is expensive and complex, but it also uses tactics that are difficult to master, such as aerial refueling. A new Ukrainian pilot may be able to fly after some compressed training, but will she be able to perform complex maneuvers in formation of 4-8 fighters necessary for combined arms operations at the front? [photo] Ukraine's armed forces have yet to master combined arms on the ground despite months of training in NATO countries, and over a year of combat. It has also made questionable use of scarce, expensive resources to attack low-value targets such as rear area training grounds without significant troop concentrations. Air combat adds yet another layer of complexity to a logistical 3D chess game. Where is Spock when you need him?

This is not to say the F-16s, when they finally reach the battlefield, will be useless. They may be able to fly effective sorties in small flights. They could be very effective against Russian ships in the Black Sea using long range anti-ship missiles. The NATO jets are more compatible with supplied munitions--such as anti-radar missiles--than modified MiGs.  US Person, call sign Odd Job, thinks ATACMS or even more deliberate use of the current Air Force would be more effective at this point in Putin's War on Ukraine. Ukrainian pilots are already expert MiG drivers. Slava Ukrainie!