Thursday, November 09, 2023

COTW: The World in 2100

A lot of the Earth's problems in terms of pollution and destruction of natural habitat is driven by human population growth.  So you may ask when it [growth] end?  The chart this week shows the major population models with the UN's projection being the most widely referenced:

UN predicts that in 2100 the world's population will be around 10.5 billion people, with the peak arriving around 2086. Fortunately,US Person will not be around for that occurrence. Unless we solve the climate crisis, Earth will be a hellish place to live, and the starships full. The differences in the projections are due to projected fertility rates.  Both Asia and Africa are predicted to experience sharp declines in birth rates as countries there experience further economic development.  Sub-Saharan Africa, which has open of the highest fertility rates in the world, is not expected to reach replacement rate of 2 births per woman until 2070.  Birth rate changes in high fertility areas have a significant impact on when peak population will occurr.