Thursday, February 01, 2024

Brought to You Since 1954

Newly uncovered documents show that the fossil fuel industry knew of the effects of combustion on the Earth's climate since 1954.  Early research by Charles Keeling, sponsored by industry, measured CO₂ in the western US. He went on to establish the "Keeling Curve" [left], which shows the upward trend of carbon dioxide content in the world's atmosphere. This mathematical correlation has been acclaimed as one of the most important scientific achievement of modern times.

Companies formed the Air Pollution Foundation that donated $158,000 in today's money to the research effort, which included studying the smog plaguing Los Angeles at the time.  Keeling's research director, Samuel Epstein, wrote about a new isotope analysis that could track atmospheric changes caused by the burning of coal and petroleum. He wrote in November of 1954 that, “The possible consequences of a changing concentration of the CO2 in the atmosphere with reference to climate, rates of photosynthesis, and rates of equilibration with carbonate of the oceans may ultimately prove of considerable significance to civilization.” His prediction has materialized today. The documents are "smoking gun" proof that the industry was aware much earlier than previously known of the severe ecological effects from burning its products. 

Physicist Edward Teller, father of the hydrogen bomb, warned a symposium audience in 1959, "It has been calculated that a temperature rise corresponding to a 10 per cent increase in carbon dioxide will be sufficient to melt the icecap and submerge New York. All the coastal cities would be covered, and since a considerable percentage of the human race lives in coastal regions, I think that this chemical contamination is more serious than most people tend to believe." Incredibly the industry continues to deny in some respects the consequences of two centuries of carbon combustion. The oil lobby has launched an eight figure advertising campaign promoting the idea that fossil fuels are vital to global energy secuirty.  US oil production reached a record high in 2023, the hottest year on record.

Keeling and his researchers' work would lead to the continuous carbon dioxide measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Current CO₂ levels are at 442 ppm or a third higher than they were in 1958. They are 50% more than pre-industrial levels, higher than ever experienced by human civilization. Backers of the Air Pollution Foundatoin included the American Petroleum Institue, the main industry lobby, and eighteen car companies including Ford, GM, and Chrysler. The unearthed documents came from Cal Tech archives, US archives, the Universitiy of California at San Diego and Los Angeles, and newspapers from the 1950's. This newest revelation will add impetus to efforts to hold industry legally responsible for the impacts of climate change.