[credit: Pat Oliphant]Saturday, May 31, 2008
Friday, May 30, 2008
Le Shorter: The Magic Number
42
Nota Bene: Even if Hill&Bill is awarded her proportion of the Florida delegation of 211 which calculates to 105 based on her 50% to 33% victory in that primary, it's not enough to overcome Obamanation. Based on this arithmetic, Obama would be awarded 67 delegates, plus the 13 pledged to Edwards and 5 Florida automatic delegates for a total of 85 resulting in a net +28 for her (Hill&Bill has 8 Florida supers). Dividing Michigan's delegation of 156 is even more problematical for Hill&Bill because their opponent was not even on the ballot. Only a 50/50 split would be fair to all candidates. Currently Obama's margin is +200 in contested delegates. Slice it or dice it--he wins.
Nota Bene: Even if Hill&Bill is awarded her proportion of the Florida delegation of 211 which calculates to 105 based on her 50% to 33% victory in that primary, it's not enough to overcome Obamanation. Based on this arithmetic, Obama would be awarded 67 delegates, plus the 13 pledged to Edwards and 5 Florida automatic delegates for a total of 85 resulting in a net +28 for her (Hill&Bill has 8 Florida supers). Dividing Michigan's delegation of 156 is even more problematical for Hill&Bill because their opponent was not even on the ballot. Only a 50/50 split would be fair to all candidates. Currently Obama's margin is +200 in contested delegates. Slice it or dice it--he wins.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Housing Meltdown
Warren Buffet's real estate CEO sees the US real estate market bottoming. But here at Persona Non Grata we consider that statement sales talk. Some sobering numbers are submitted for your consideration. Standard & Poor said its national home price index fell 14.1% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the lowest since its inception in 1988. Last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said home prices fell 3.1 percent in the first quarter, the largest drop in its 17-year history and only the second quarter of price declines recorded. The National Association of Realtors said its pending sales index set a fresh record low, down about 20% from a year ago and 35% from its peak in April 2005. The current Case-Schiller Index shows home prices declining at a 32% annual rate. At risk is a huge 4.6 million home inventory or nearly double the 2.6 million average inventory for the past 20 years. Even more worrisome is that 2.27 million homes sit empty, and that is besides all the other homes banks own from foreclosures, projected to be 1 in 8 US homes by 2012. 62.3% of lenders of prime mortgages are tightening their credit standards--making it harder to get a new loan or refinance. In the eighteen years the Fed has been tracking home mortgage standards, there was never a reading above 32.7% Similar credit tightening is going on in the commercial real estate arena (78.6% are tightening standards). 
If homes keep deflating and hit the dangerous 20% level experts mention, millions will lose their equity. Consumption and credit will be hit, and banks will keep writing-off greater amounts, a development no one wants to contemplate. Robert Shiller believes home prices may equal or exceed the 30% drop of the 1930s. That's $6 trillion in today's dollars, or $80,000 for every US homeowner. The Fed can keep injecting liquidity but only for so long, and it may not work. If bank losses are great enough, their liquidity demands will overwhelm the central bank and for some it will be a matter of too little, too late. Not a pretty picture, and no way to know how bad things may get. But just so you don't get too gloomy and accuse me of being unpatriotic, here is a pretty picture of a soft landing that actually worked. Way to go, JPL!
If homes keep deflating and hit the dangerous 20% level experts mention, millions will lose their equity. Consumption and credit will be hit, and banks will keep writing-off greater amounts, a development no one wants to contemplate. Robert Shiller believes home prices may equal or exceed the 30% drop of the 1930s. That's $6 trillion in today's dollars, or $80,000 for every US homeowner. The Fed can keep injecting liquidity but only for so long, and it may not work. If bank losses are great enough, their liquidity demands will overwhelm the central bank and for some it will be a matter of too little, too late. Not a pretty picture, and no way to know how bad things may get. But just so you don't get too gloomy and accuse me of being unpatriotic, here is a pretty picture of a soft landing that actually worked. Way to go, JPL!
Monday, May 26, 2008
Le Shorter: Massive Turnout in Oregon
According to Phil Keisling, a former Oregon Secretary of State, the turnout in Oregon's Democratic primary was massive: a whopping 72.88% so far. The count will not be final until June 9th. The Oregon figure eclipses Pennsylvania's 54% and Kentucky's 43%. Kentucky's modest Democratic voter turnout was a record. If historical trends hold, Oregon is on track to exceed the previous state record of 73% set in the 1968 primary contest between Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Dialogue with Hillary: MmmmphUgh!
What's that Hill? I can't hear understand what you are saying. Maybe if you took your foot out of your mouth, that would help. Seriously, Senator, its time to end further embarrassment-- no matter how the sisters feel. Hey, if you don't take it from me here is what Ann Davidow says in her blog: "And it isn’t really that anyone believes Hillary wishes Kennedy’s fate to be visited upon Obama but rather that her musings are an indication of her egocentric approach to the world. Self-involved and driven by ambition her sense of entitlement led her to verbalize that inner sense of self importance. And in the uproar that followed she issued one of those non-apology apologies about not meaning to “offend”, so typical of politicians who just can’t bring themselves to admit they said something totally inappropriate, insulting, insensitive and mean-spirited." Ditto. The magic number is 59.
Update: In pushback mode Hillary Clinton is defending her remarks saying they were "taken out of
context". Well, Senator, the context of your remarks was inapposite and therefore given the sensitivity of your reference, mean. The historic context of RFK's campaign is entirely different than that which exists today. Relative unknown Eugene McCarthy was widely viewed by party elders as not having a chance against the 'new' Nixon, and Kennedy entered the race late. Certainly not the case with Obama versus McCain. Obama leads McCain in a national poll by 8%. The California primary, representing a large block of delegates, was held months ago held in case you can't remember winning it midst the campaign haze. My understanding is that "Super Tuesday" was intended to identify a viable candidate early so more resources could be diverted to winning the general election. The point is not that you be given the same freedom to press your candidacy for as long as male candidates did without criticism, but that you have no realistic chance of winning and therefore continuing your campaign is counterproductive to the Democratic Party's cause in November. The race is close and the criticism chauvinist only in your mind, Senator. By every metric you care to fairly use, Obama wins. Only if you try to rely on primaries in which the leading opponent did not participate, as previously agreed, can you twist the facts to suit your case. And your statement that you are "committed to uniting the party" is totally disingenuous. Everybody knows you are only interested in doing whatever it takes to win, party be damned.
Editorial Note: Thanks to the many readers of Persona Non Grata for pointing out spelling gaffes overlooked. Enjoy our updated profile image above.
Update: In pushback mode Hillary Clinton is defending her remarks saying they were "taken out of
context". Well, Senator, the context of your remarks was inapposite and therefore given the sensitivity of your reference, mean. The historic context of RFK's campaign is entirely different than that which exists today. Relative unknown Eugene McCarthy was widely viewed by party elders as not having a chance against the 'new' Nixon, and Kennedy entered the race late. Certainly not the case with Obama versus McCain. Obama leads McCain in a national poll by 8%. The California primary, representing a large block of delegates, was held months ago held in case you can't remember winning it midst the campaign haze. My understanding is that "Super Tuesday" was intended to identify a viable candidate early so more resources could be diverted to winning the general election. The point is not that you be given the same freedom to press your candidacy for as long as male candidates did without criticism, but that you have no realistic chance of winning and therefore continuing your campaign is counterproductive to the Democratic Party's cause in November. The race is close and the criticism chauvinist only in your mind, Senator. By every metric you care to fairly use, Obama wins. Only if you try to rely on primaries in which the leading opponent did not participate, as previously agreed, can you twist the facts to suit your case. And your statement that you are "committed to uniting the party" is totally disingenuous. Everybody knows you are only interested in doing whatever it takes to win, party be damned.Editorial Note: Thanks to the many readers of Persona Non Grata for pointing out spelling gaffes overlooked. Enjoy our updated profile image above.
Friday, May 23, 2008
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