When the Well Runs Dry

Charley Maxell agrees with me and he ain't no tree hugger. Charley is a Wall Street oil analyst, reputed to be the best. He is an Oxford Arabic and Persian scholar and worked for Mobil for a decade. Enough said. He knows whereof he speaks.

The crunch is coming says Charley, around 2015 to 2020 when global oil production will reach a maximum rate and start to inexorably decline. He sees several reasons for the coming paradigm shift. The big oils did not invest enough for exploration and pocketed their enormous profits. If you are a CEO with a lot of stock options that's good news, for the rest of its bad news. War in the Middle East and Africa has disrupted operations. Did anybody say Iraq? The world is using 1.5 to 2% more oil every year. There is more oil to be recovered but its the oil in difficult locations like the deep ocean and the Arctic. The search has slowed down.

Charley says we need a new conservation ethic to replace our disposable one. We need more efficient housing, more efficient vehicles and disincentives for consumers who waste like taxing big engines and overweight vehicles. Did anybody say Hummer? Right on, Charley.