Mark your calendars, people. The winter solstice on December 21, 2012 is supposed to be the end of an age when drastic--some believe catastrophic--change will occur. Those ancient star gazers, the Maya, developed a very accurate and extremely "long count" calendar. The approximately 26,000 (modern value = 25,771.5) year precession or wobble of the earth on its axis is completed on that date. The Maya, without telescopes, calculated this cycle accurately. They also invented the zero. The Earth and solstice sun will be aligned with the black hole at the center of our galaxy. These future facts we can verify with modern scientific calculation. But scientists discount the dire predictions associated with the end of the 13th b'ak'tun (5,125 years) issued by the legendary Chilam Balam. Or do they have their own version of these warnings? A report by the National Academy of Science issued in January, 2009 warns that at the autumn or spring equinox of 2012 the Earth may experience a coronal mass ejection of such magnitude that all of our telecommunications and electric grids will be knocked out by the electro-magnetic pulse not for days, but for months. A coronal mass ejection is caused by a storm in the sun's corona region so violent that a massive glob of high energy plasma is thrown off towards Earth. If the plasma mass hits our protective magnetic field all hell breaks loose. Massive induced direct currents are created that are channeled by our electric power grids which act as antennas. Of course our electrical systems are not built to handle this surge from outer space. Most vulnerable are the large step-up and step down transformers that convert transported mega voltage into useful domestic voltages. Basically a transformer melts when hit by a power surge of this magnitude. This is what happened in Quebec in 1989 when six million people went without power for nine hours. It could be much worse. In a prolonged blackout when overwhelmed utility crews are struggling with thousands of damaged power lines, transformers, and shut down power plants, is not just electrical service we would loose, but all the interconnected support systems that make our modern life possible: water and sewage treatment, refrigeration and food distribution systems, financial markets, transportation systems, telephone service and life saving medical equipment.
The possibility of a fireball from the sky wrecking civilization is not just New Age mysticism. It
happened once before on a small scale not that long ago. The Carrington Event is named after the British astronomer who recorded a coronal eruption in 1859. Besides producing astounding auroras from the North pole to the tropics, the electromagnetic pulse knocked out telegraph systems, magnetometers went off their scales, machines burst into flames, and operators were rendered unconscious by electric shock. The magnetic storm lasted for eight days. Because the use of electricity was still in its infancy, societal damage was limited largely to the telegraph business. That has all changed. "Severe space weather" as it is now termed has the potential to cause serious long term outages to major portions of North America, and cause permanent damage to modern infrastructure. The regions outlined in the map (above) show the areas of system catastrophic collapse due to induced currents during a geomagnetic disturbance like the Carrington Event. About 365 transformers would go off line according to Metatech Corp. which performed an analysis of the potential impacts of such an event for FEMA. The August 14, 2003 Northeast blackout is estimated to have cost $4 to $10 billion. Hurricane Katrina is estimated to have cost $82 billion to $125 billion. A severe geomagnetic storm could inflict $1 trillion to $2 trillion in damage the first year, and full recovery could take as long as 4 to 10 years. The greatest chance for coronal mass eruptions occur during solar maximums--the sun's most stormy season. When is the next solar maximum? 2012.
[calendar image: U of Texas]
[map: Metatech Corp.]