Monday, June 27, 2011

Chart of the Week: Oil Price Wars

This chart shows the number of giant oil fields discovered and the volume of recoverable resource by decade and the decline in discoveries and the decreasing volume of new oil available as expected for any finite, non-renewable resource:
Recent price escalation in the cost of gasoline reflect several factors: declining crude oil supply, seasonal demand, refinery production capacity, and speculation in the global market. Speculation is primarily driven by the political and financial situation of the moment, particularly in the Middle East. This chart shows the correlation:

The release of crude oil stock from national petroleum reserves is a response to the disruption of the market caused by the Libyan civil war and resulting speculation of oil price rise.  After the statement by the International Energy Agency that it would inject 60 million barrels into the global market, Brent crude futures for August fell by more than $8, while US crude fell below $100 a barrel after reaching $114 in May.  Only 30% of oil delivery contracts are purchased by an oil user according to the CFTC; the remaining 70% are purchased by speculators who never take possession but merely flip the contract for a profit.  American consumption has flattened since the financial crisis of 2008, and refineries have excess capacity, yet gasoline prices where rising prior to the decision to dump more oil onto the international market. Some oil traders blame speculators for price rises not related to supply and demand.  The case against petroleum speculation gets even more interesting when one realizes that Koch Industries, America's second largest private corporation driven by the radical laissez-faire ideology of the the Koch Bros., invented oil index price swaps in a deal with Chase Manhattan Bank in 1986, and lobbied heavily to prevent derivative trading regulation.