Diplomats will gather in Montreux, Switzerland this week in an attempt to end the bloody civil war that is laying waste to Syria. The talks got off to a dubious start when the rebels forced the UN to rescind its invitation to Iran to participate in the talks. The invitation was
a nod to the reality that Iran is playing a significant role by aiding Hezbollah which is fighting for the Assad regime. Saudi Arabia is supporting the Sunnis that occupy almost all of the desert interior. A peace deal will be a very difficult accomplishment and this chart shows why:
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| credit: Stratfor |
When the Sykes-Picot mandate ended in 1943 the situation was already ripe for sectarian division. Improbable control of such a diverse population by a relatively small sectarian group put into power by the French, the Alawites, effectively guaranteed the use of force to control restive segments of the Syrian population, and indeed the Assad regime
stands accused of systematic torture of its national enemies. However, the regime has a death grip on the capital, Damascus, and is trying to recapture rebel held Aleppo and the surrounding region. The Kurds meanwhile are continuing their efforts to establish autonomous zones in the north and east as they have already done in Iraq's northwest. Both sides in the war have regional and big-power supporters willing to fuel the conflict for their own geopolitical interests and neither side is willing to make power sharing concessions necessary for a settlement. Indeed, the rebel side is in disarray as its fratricidal conflicts and jihadist domination threaten to make any cohesive settlement impossible. History does not provide a
raison d'être for the modern nation known as Syria. The region has been a borderland between traditional, regional powers to the north, east and south. Arab traders referred to it merely as "the land to the left" of their holy shrines in Arabia. Only twice in its pre-modern history could the region claim to be a sovereign, independent state: during the Seleucid dynasty (301-141 BC) and the Umayyad Caliphate (661-749 AD). Diplomats will be searching for Syria's missing mythos in Montreaux.
