Monday, February 17, 2020

COTW: Red Flags

This chart is from the St. Louis Fed via Wolfstreet.com:
Not good news for job seekers in this miraculous economy for plutocrats.  In two months there has been almost a million fewer job openings (938,000).  On a non-adjusted basis, job loss is the steepest since the Great Recession. December was the seventh month in a row of year over year declines. Here is another indication of current economic trends:

Delinquencies among sub prime auto loans (below 620 credit score) are soaring.  Serious delinquencies, more than 90 days, rose 15.5% from a year ago.  Remember, these are the good times!  This situation is not caused by job losses, but the avarice of the subprime lenders who make a bundle on higher, even usurious, interest rates.  Think of it as junk bonds for the masses.  These loans get packaged into asset backed securities (ABS) which investors love because of high rates of return.  The same securitization of high risk loans occurred in the mortgage industry a decade ago end in the Great Recession of 2008,  The delinquency rate for ABS is now higher than it was during the crisis.  Not big enough to take down the global banking system, but still indicative of what one pundit calls the "hollowed out economy".