Latest: The US recorded its first two fatalities from the corona virus spreading through the country over the weekend. Both cases were older adults with underlying health issues. The number of reported cases is now 91, but experts think that is an underestimate due to restrictive testing criteria. Those criteria have since be replaced with wide spread testing protocols. Some testing kits were also discovered to be defective. Over the weekend 15,000 kits were released by the federal government, and a spokesperson said it was working with a private provider to make 50,000 more available soon. The states of New York, Florida and Rhode Island each reported their first cases, all linked to recent foreign travel.
A genetic analysis of cases at a Kirkland, WA nursing home where an outbreak hotspot occurred indicates that the virus could have been spreading in the community for six weeks prior to being detected by testing. Officials estimate as many 1500 people may be infected. One resident has died and three more are in critical condition. An epidemiologist with the Washington State Department of Health said he knows of doctors who suspected coronovirus infection that were unable to get patients tested prior to the change in testing criteria. For example, a Seattle physician presented with low grade fever and coughing in a patient who had traveled to China, was unable to obtain corona virus testing for her because she had returned more than two weeks ago. The state is now ramping up to 200 tests per day to obtain more accurate sampling of the disease spread.
{25.02.20} A Harvard epidemiologist, Dr. Marc Lipstich, interviewed by The Atlantic magazine, says the COVID-19 epidemic has probably infected about 200 people in the US. Confirmed cases are reported as 35. He predicts that worldwide about 40-70% will be infected with the corona virus that causes COVID-19. Fortunately, the fatality rate is estimated less than 2%, but the virus has already killed more people than SARS and MERS to which it is related. Many infected humans will be asymptomatic or have only mild, flu-like responses. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that COVID-19 will become an endemic, seasonal disease like the other four that regularly afflict humanity. Humans apparently do not develop long lasting immunity to diseases like colds and flu.
Despite misleading media reports, there is no available vaccine. A company has replicated a portion of the virus' RNA in the laboratory, but that is only a first step to producing a vaccine, which must be tested before widespread administration. The trick to producing an effective, safe vaccine is to find the right position on an RNA molecule, or gene sequence, that produces immunity and not acute inflammation. That takes time, money and a bit of art. During the SARS outbreak in 2003, researchers needed 20 months from isolating a genome sequence to developing a vaccine ready for phase I clinical trials. Allowing for improvements in the process, it still could be 12 months before a vaccine is ready for widespread use. No giant pharma company has committed to producing a COVID-19 vaccine, and the current regime has recently proposed cutting funding for pandemic preparedness in its budget documents. Don Trumpellini is reportedly furious with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over briefings given to the public and the resultant drop in the market due to panicking investors. He apparently intends to rely on propaganda instead of science in his response to a possible pandemic
{25.02.20} The coronovirus epidemic has got Wall Streek spooked. Stocks dropped again with the Street of Dreams posting the largest decline in two years for the S&P index. The ten year Treasury note is headed for a record low too. Midst the angst, the Center for Disease Control warned that a coronovirus outbreak will occur in the US. The Center warned that an outbreak here is a matter of time, and it could be severe. So far the fatality rate globally is less than 3%, much less than SARS, which is caused by a variety of the same virus family. Respiratory viruses like these can travel through the
air, enveloped in tiny droplets that are produced when a sick person
breathes, talks, coughs or sneezes. More than 80,000 people have caught the virus and nearly 2,700 of them have died, mostly in China.
A vaccine for the virus is more than a year away. Health officials advise washing hands frequently, and if you are sick, stay away from work or school.