COTW: Down for the Count

The US Census Bureau released the results of the 2020 Census this week. Conducted under the most adverse conditions in modern history, it confirms a declining growth rate (the slowest since the Depression Era) and continued movement of population out of the northeast and midwest to the sunbelt:

The political implications of these trends are significant. Some see an aging population as a liability in the economic competition against China, which has a huge population. The U.S. still has a higher fertility rate than Japan and Germany. Historically as countries become wealthier and more educated, fertility rates decline. It may be more difficult for Democrats to hold a majority in the House of Representatives since red states like Texas and Florida gained seats, while blue state like California and New York lost seats.

New York's loss of one seat is particularly frustrating for Democrats. The state failed to hold on to its 27 seat delegation by 89 people. Some New Yorkers blamed the state government for not being behind the counting. The New York Times commented: "The announcement raised other questions about just how close New York came to retaining the House seat. The census was supposed to be a snapshot of the United States’ population on a specific date: April 1, 2020. That happened to be right as the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic swept through New York. On March 31 alone, a New York Times database showed there were 417 deaths in the state." The Census Bureau stands behind the accuracy of its counting even during a global pandemic. Oregon, a reliably blue state with the state legislature iunder the control of Democrats, gained a seat. It fell short of gaining a seat in 1970 by 231 residents. Now, the highly politicized process of redistricting based on the census results will begin after the Census Bureau releases more count details in August. Repugnants control a majority of state legislatures in which redistricting takes place.