Friday, October 01, 2021

COTW: Gerrymandering 101

This chart provides an instructive example of partisan line drawing at work, It comes from Nebraska's Second Congressional District, the only one in the state to vote for Joe Biden at the last election:

credit: Daily Kos

The Omaha metro area is the blob of purple floating in a sea of green Trumpland. Upper left is the redistricting accomplished by the Repugnant majority in the state's only legislative chamber, the Unicameral. The bottom chart is what the Democrats might have supported if they had a fair chance. That version would have increased the liberal margin by 4 points.They filibustered the alternate proposal shown in the upper right which would have cut into the Democratic vote margin by splitting the urban bloc.

The Second is significant because it is a swing district, and Nebraska is one of the few states that awards electoral votes by congressional district. Obama actually carried the Second in 2010. Repugnants, keen to prevent a long-term swing to the left, promptly redrew boundaries to cut the southern suburb of Bellevue off from the rest of the urban population center. It had been a part of the Second District for decades prior. Bellevue voted Trump 55-38 in 2016, but that was reduced to 51-46 last year. In the latest approved version the conservatives carved out more of Saunders County--rural, deep red Trumpland--and attached it to more liberal, urban Omaha. The end result is a wash, with the vote margin still 52-46 in favor of the Blues.