If you search the archives of this blog you will find that I joined the few daring to propose a radical solution to the problem of reconstructing Afghanistan. For centuries Afghanistan's agricultural economy has depended on the opium crop. The Taliban also depends on the drug trade to finance its resistance to the national government and NATO forces. One reason the resistance is so difficult to defeat is this reliable source of cash for purchasing material and manpower. The inability of internationally financed reconstruction projects to make a difference in ordinary Afghan's lives is another explanation for the Taliban's survival. According to one poll, Taliban support among civilians is increasing in Kandahar and Helmand provinces. A British commander warned that if civilians do not start seeing an improvement in their situation, as much as 70% of Afghans could switch sides. Such a massive opinion swing would make NATO military operations and the ultimate political goal of modernizing the nation much more difficult if not impossible.
Purchasing the entire opium crop from farmers is a solution to both problems. The idea has gotten little respect from governments. But that may be changing according to Christopher Smallwood writing for the Independent. The possibility of making opium production legal in Afghanistan is creeping onto European agendas. The idea is to allow opium poppies to be purchased from farmers by licensed dealers so that it can be sold for use by pharmaceutical companies making opium based pain killers. That is a beginning, but for the idea to work at all, the opium market must be entirely cornered by the government and its western allies. All of the poppy crop has to be sold to regulated buyers in order to deprive the Taliban of income. The pharmacies could use an additional 55 tons in their business. Afghanistan produces 6,000 tons annually. Obviously, drug companies cannot use it all. What is not resold must be rigorously destroyed. Teaching Afghan farmers to grow something benign and then providing a lucrative market for their product would also help.
Cost considerations do not make the buyout idea unfeasible either. The current program of military action and crop eradication will cost $155 billion through 2008. The program is not working. The poppy crop is bigger than ever and attacks on NATO troops are up. Estimates of a buyout program for the poppy crop are around $2.7 billion. The retail value of Afghanistan's heroin trade is around $120 billion. Why pay more?