Obama's Path to Victory II

Senator Obama has picked up 26 automatic delegates in the last week, eclipsing Senator Clinton's long held lead in that category (281-271.5). Obama now has 1871.5 (AP) delegates pledged to support him at the convention including automatic delegates. Ignoring the out of bounds delegations from Michigan and Florida for the moment (the delegates will be seated, but the exact allocation remains to be determined by the rules and bylaws committee) the magic number is 2025. Assuming Obama wins half of the remaining 217 contested delegates, he will be only 45 short of the nomination by the end of the primaries on June 3rd without anymore automatic delegates pledging support. But with about two hundred super delegates still uncommitted, the large probability is Obama will have enough to win the nomination before the convention begins in August.
[first post 5/7/08]
Previously I did the math on the remaining delegates to be allocated in the Democratic Primary race. With Hillary's narrow win in Indiana (+4) and a pounding in North Carolina by Obama (+8 so far, 59 remain to be allocated), Hillary's big money contributors will drift away as well as her "super" delegate support. Hillary loaned herself another cool $6.4 million in the aftermath of the Obama victory, perhaps from her husband's $24 million she did not disclose. Nevertheless the transplanted Arkansan will continue her campaign right up to the convention, ignoring calls from party leaders to end the contest so resources can be devoted to defeating John W. McBush in November.

Another look at the contested delegate count shows 217 remain to be allocated. Obama will add to his lead of about 150 contested delegates after Tuesday's results are final. Hillary looks forward to Kentucky(51) and W. Virginia( 28). While Obama will probably win Oregon(52), Montana(16) and South Dakota(15). Puerto Rico(55) will go for Hillary, but that contest is not really significant since the territory does not have a vote in the Electoral College. Even if every single delegate from the contests she is expected to win are allocated to her column (Obama would have to quit for that to happen), she does not have enough delegates to overcome Obama's current lead of 149-156(NYT-AP) contested delegates.

Automatic delegates are expected to confirm the results of America's participation in the primaries. A nonconforming result at Hillary's stubborn insistence would cause chaos at the convention, and the party still vividly remembers Chicago, 1968. Undoubtedly Michigan and Florida delegations will be seated on a 50/50 basis since that is the only fair way to recognize their "out of bounds" credentials. 254-256 automatic delegates have committed so far to Obama. He is about 200 delegates short of the nomination (2025) at this point. If he wins only half of the remaining contested delegates, and is assigned half of the delegates from populous Florida and Michigan, he has enough to win the nomination without buying a single automatic delegate. So the fat lady is hitting all the high notes.