Saturday, August 20, 2022

The Nuclear Card

Update: French president Macron's office told the press on Friday that Vladimir Putin has agreed to allow international inspectors inside the Zahporizhzhia nuclear power station. The announcement came after a visit by Turkish leader Erdogan to Lviv for a meeting with President Zelenskyy and UN General Secretary Guterres.  Fighting has flared near the plant, with missile strikes coming close to radioactive waste storage. Guterres urged that the plant continue to produce electricity.  Energoatom, Ukraine's energy company that owns Zaporizhzhia, said Russia threatened to take the station off-line.  Secretary Guterres in Odessa commented to the press,"Obviously, the electricity from Zaporizhzhia is Ukrainian electricity. This principle must be fully respected".

The governor of Zahporizhzhia Oblast said the the power station provides energy to the city's heating system.  Turning it off would leave 700,000 without heat during the cold winter.  A Conservative MP in the UK warned that any deliberate damage to the plant causing a radiation leak "would be a breach of NATO's Article 5" referring to the treaty provision that calls for group defense in the event a treaty member is attacked. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but a major radiation leak would impact neighboring member states.

{04.08.22}The UN's nuclear chief told AP hat the Zaproizhia nuclear power plant is "out of control" and pleaded that IAEA nspectors be allowed into the facility to determine its status. He said that "every principle" of nuclear safety had been violated in a "grave and serious" situation in which the sprawling station is in the middle of a war zone. The plant is controlled by Russia, but operated by Ukranians. Supplies to the plant have been interupted and contact with operators is "patchy". International inspections are urgently needed according to Director General Rafael Grossi. Putin said recently that nuclear war was "unwindable" and that everything should be done to avoid nuclear war, but that sentiment does not stop his troops from using Europe's biggest nuclear reactor as an artillery platform. Russians are shelling Nikopol, a town across the Dnipro River from the Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant.  Another reason nuclear plants are a bad idea for solving the energy crisis.  They become targets of opportunity for terrorists, eager to inflict heavy damage with relatively little cost. and belligerent nations can use them as tactical cover in war.  Russia captured the facility in March, and have been firing from it since mid-July. Ukrainian forces are reluctant to attack the artillery for fear of hitting a reactor or nuclear waste storage.Its a target begging for a commando raid upriver, but so far Ukraine's military leaders have avoided that risky a venture.

A resident of Nikopol told reporters,“We are like condemned prisoners who must just stand still and be shot at. They shoot at us, and there is nothing we can do.”  The plant is a major obstacle to Ukraine's publicized counter-attack to take Kherson, its second biggest city, from the Russians who are intent on hanging on to their territorial gains.  Taking back Kherson would put Ukraine in a better bargaining position at a negotiation for peace.  The Russian shelling is proving problematic for Ukrainian forces as it pushes to capture the last remaining crossing point for Russian re-supply, the Nova Khakovka dam.

When the Russians took the plant, combat ignited a fire that alarmed the world.  Shrapnel hit Reactor #1, but did not breach the containment structure.  Three of the six reactors are operational, others are shut down for repairs   A direct strike with a power munition could cause a meltdown according to the exiled mayor of Enerhodar and former engineer at the plant.  That is why a more precision strike by special forces is needed.  Ukrainian operators are reported under duress from Russian mistreatment.  The occupiers have allowed supplies to cross lines as well as nuclear regulators.  Rosatom, the Russian nuclear agency has also sent in engineers to monitor the situation.  Still, the plant is in a dangerous nuclear limbo in the middle of a war zone.  A disastrous accident could occur at any time. [photo credit: NYT]