Wednesday, November 14, 2018

COTW: It Is Climate Change, Stupid!

Hair Further was quick to blame bad forest management--a capitalist code phrase for logging--as the reason for California's devastating wildfires.  He was just as quickly contradicted by professional firefighters.  The president of the International Association of Firefighters said his twits on the subject were "reckless and insulting" to firefighters and victims of the flames.  The facts are that the deadly Camp Fire that wiped out the town of Paradise Valley started in a forest that was thinned by fire ten years ago.  The Woolsey Fire that has devastated the affluent living in Malibu, started on a hillside, not a forest.  If he must bloviate on social media, he owes it to the country to do it accurately.

Three factors are contributing to the intensity of the fires:  One is that California is tinder dry.  The state is still recovering from a historic drought, and Santa Ana winds, which occur every year, are blowing strong.  Second, the fire season is now 78 days longer on average than in the past due to climate change. A long-term trend of warmer summers and drier falls has helped desiccate California's vegetation to kindling.  Third, human habitation is increasingly encroaching on wild lands where fires begin. 

This chart shows the largest wildfires in California's history.  Unfortunately there are more giant fires to come due to the factors mentioned.  Gov. Jerry Brown called this fire season, the "new normal":


The Mendocino Complex, formed when two fires merged, has burned 440 square miles of Northern California.  The Camp fire is the state's most deadly having killed 58 people as fire raged through the small town in the middle of forest land.  Some were burned in their vehicles trying to escape the inferno. Seven thousand structures were destroyed. There are still missing persons in the hundreds.  The state spent $505 million fighting fires in 2017.  That amount will certainly be exceeded this year. Harvard researchers have concluded that by 2050 the number of wildfires in the US will double.

As can be seen from this chart the trend in the size of wild fires is also increasing over time.  Think about that Mr. Yuge the next time you deny the effects of climate change: